Athena Observatory Warns of Deepening Structural Risks in Nigeria’s Democracy

By: Michael Mike

A new policy report has raised fresh concerns about the stability of Nigeria’s democratic system, warning that growing political fragmentation and institutional strain could undermine the credibility of elections ahead of the 2027 general polls.

The report, released on Tuesday by the Athena Election Observatory (AEO), marks the debut of its Political Landscape Monitor—a policy series designed to track and analyse the country’s evolving electoral environment. Titled “Nigeria’s Democracy and the Imperative of Competitive Politics,” the inaugural note paints a sobering picture of a political system struggling to keep pace with its own internal dynamics.

According to the Observatory, a pattern is emerging across Nigeria’s major political parties in which leadership disputes, fragile alliances, and factional battles are becoming increasingly common. While these crises may appear isolated, the report argues they are symptoms of a deeper structural imbalance.

At the heart of the problem, it said, is a widening gap between political activity and institutional capacity. Political actors, driven by the urgency of coalition-building and power consolidation, are moving faster than the rules and structures meant to regulate them.

“This is not just about party disagreements,” the report noted. “It is about the weakening of the systems that are supposed to organise competition, manage conflict, and ultimately guarantee meaningful choice for voters.”

The analysis drew from recent developments within prominent parties such as the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Labour Party, where internal tensions and contested leadership claims have repeatedly spilled into the public domain.

Observers say the trend reflects a broader shift in how political disputes are resolved in Nigeria. Rather than being settled through internal party mechanisms, disagreements are increasingly pushed toward external institutions—particularly the courts and electoral regulators.

The report highlighted the pivotal role of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in this process. Its decisions on which party factions to recognise can effectively determine leadership outcomes, making it a central actor in intra-party struggles.

While acknowledging INEC’s constitutional mandate, the Observatory cautioned that inconsistent or opaque decision-making could erode public confidence. It called for clearer procedures and stricter adherence to impartiality to prevent the Commission from being perceived as a political arbiter.

Equally significant is the growing reliance on the judiciary to settle political disputes. The report warned that while the courts remain essential for upholding the rule of law, their increasing involvement in intra-party conflicts risks displacing internal governance systems.

Legal interventions, it argued, should serve as a last resort—not a default mechanism.

“When courts become the primary arena for resolving political disagreements, parties gradually lose the capacity to govern themselves,” the report states. “Over time, this weakens the entire democratic ecosystem.”

Beyond institutional concerns, the Observatory drew attention to the implications for ordinary voters. A fragmented political landscape, it said, reduces the clarity and credibility of electoral choices, leaving citizens with options that may lack cohesion or long-term viability.

In such conditions, elections risk becoming procedural exercises rather than meaningful expressions of democratic will.

The report ultimately framed the issue as a national, rather than partisan, challenge. Strengthening the institutional foundations of political competition, it argued, is critical not only for credible elections but also for political stability and governance.

As Nigeria edges closer to another election cycle, the findings serve as a stark reminder that the health of a democracy depends not just on the conduct of elections, but on the strength of the systems that shape them long before ballots are cast.

The Athena Election Observatory said it will continue to publish periodic assessments under its Political Landscape Monitor, offering data-driven insights into the trends shaping Nigeria’s political future.

Athena Observatory Warns of Deepening Structural Risks in Nigeria’s Democracy

Agriculture partnership: Gov Yahaya to get Sasakawa’s Special Award

Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe State will be honoured with a Special Recognition Award by the Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA) Nigeria, in acknowledgement of the state’s sustained partnership and strategic commitment to agricultural development.

The award will be presented at the 2026 SAA Nigeria Annual Stakeholders Workshop on Thursday, April 9, 2026, in Abuja, where top federal officials, development partners, diplomats, and state governments are expected to gather to discuss pathways for strengthening Nigeria’s food systems.

The workshop, holding at Rockview Royale Hotel, Wuse II, is themed “SAA @ 40: Deepening Impact and Expanding Reach at Scale.”

The recognition of Governor Inuwa Yahaya reflects the depth of Gombe State’s collaboration with SAA over the years, which has supported agricultural extension, smallholder productivity, and rural livelihoods.

Since its creation in 1996, Gombe State has maintained a working relationship with SAA, funded by The Nippon Foundation, to implement initiatives that improve food security, nutrition, climate resilience, and inclusive agricultural services, with particular attention to women, youth, and resource-poor farmers.

Speaking ahead of the workshop, Dr. Godwin Atser, Country Director of SAA Nigeria, said:
“This recognition celebrates a partnership backed by action. Governor Inuwa Yahaya’s leadership reflects the kind of subnational commitment essential for transforming agriculture in Nigeria.

Gombe State’s sustained support for farmer-focused interventions demonstrates what can be achieved when political will, institutional alignment, and practical investment converge.”

SAA Nigeria’s collaboration with Gombe State encompasses a wide range of interventions, including Farmer Learning Platforms (FLP), Community Savings and Investment in Agriculture (CSIA), Private Extension Service Provision (PESP), and Community-Based Seed Multiplication (CBSM), among others. Together, these initiatives strengthen the agricultural ecosystem from production to post harvest, improve access to technology, knowledge, and markets, and enhance the capacities of farmers and rural actors.

The partnership also encourages pluralistic extension systems, involving the private sector, farmer organizations, research institutions, and civil society in scaling agricultural services across the state. This multi-dimensional cooperation underscores why Gombe State’s collaboration is deserving of recognition.

As SAA marks 40 years of operations in Africa and 33 years in Nigeria, the organization notes that sustainable agricultural transformation requires long-term commitment, collaboration, and strategic investment, qualities exemplified by Gombe State and Governor Inuwa Yahaya.

The recognition will be part of a broader conversation at the 2026 Annual Stakeholders Workshop, which will review SAA’s 2021–2025 achievements, share lessons, and explore future partnerships to strengthen agriculture in Nigeria and across Africa.

About Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA)
Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA) was established in 1986 by Japanese philanthropist Ryoichi Sasakawa, Nobel Laureate Dr. Norman Borlaug, and former U.S. President Jimmy Carter.

Dedicated to improving the productivity, profitability, and resilience of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, SAA operates through agricultural extension, capacity building, and systems strengthening. Active in Nigeria since 1993, SAA collaborates with governments, research institutions, universities, private sector actors, and development partners to advance farmer-centered agricultural transformation.

Agriculture partnership: Gov Yahaya to get Sasakawa’s Special Award

JNIM terrorists clashes with rival factions in rare encounter in Nigeria’s Kebbi state

By: Zagazola Makama

A suspected clash between rival terrorists factions has been reported in Kebbi State, raising fresh security concerns in the North-West region.

Sources said the incident occurred on April 4, when a group identified as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed it engaged a rival faction described as “Khawarij”.

The group alleged that one fighter was killed and another captured during the encounter, while three motorcycles and about N10 million were recovered.

However, the identity of the opposing group has yet to be independently verified.

Preliminary indications suggest the rival faction may be linked to Boko Haram or one of its splinter groups, though this remains subject to confirmation.

Security sources said the development could represent one of the first reported inter-jihadist clashes in the region.

JNIM terrorists clashes with rival factions in rare encounter in Nigeria’s Kebbi state