Borno Politics: Power, Continuity, and the Fight for Democratic Space Ahead of 2027 Elections

By: Dr. James Bwala

The political tension in Borno State is being shaped by two closely connected developments: the strategic emergence of Engr. Mustapha Gubio as the All Progressives Congress (APC) consensus candidate for the 2027 governorship election, and the growing backlash against Governor Babagana Zulum over the controversial arrest of individuals associated with the #TinubuMustGo campaign. Together, these developments reveal a deeper contest over political succession, party control, public accountability, and the limits of democratic expression in a state still recovering from years of insecurity.

The APC’s decision to endorse Gubio, reportedly supported by Governor Zulum and Vice President Kashim Shettima, has strengthened the ruling party’s political position. At the same time, the arrests linked to an anti-government campaign have generated criticism and raised concerns about whether political stability is being pursued at the expense of civil liberties. Although the APC’s consensus strategy may offer organizational advantages, its long-term success will depend on whether the party can combine continuity with openness, development with accountability, and political strength with respect for democratic rights.

Engr. Mustapha Gubio’s selection is significant because it reflects the APC’s desire to present the 2027 election as a referendum on continuity. As a former Commissioner for Works and a figure associated with the Ministry of Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, and Resettlement, Gubio is positioned as a candidate whose experience corresponds closely with Borno’s central needs. The state continues to face the consequences of insurgency, displacement, destroyed infrastructure, disrupted education, weakened local economies, and the difficult task of rebuilding public trust. A candidate with direct experience in reconstruction can therefore argue that he understands the practical requirements of post-conflict governance.

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This is a powerful political message. Rather than presenting the 2027 election as a choice between an established government and an uncertain alternative, the APC is likely to frame it as a choice between ongoing reconstruction and the risks of interruption. Such a strategy allows the ruling party to emphasize roads, schools, hospitals, housing, resettlement, public institutions, and economic recovery. It also enables Gubio to claim that his participation in previous reconstruction efforts gives him an advantage over opponents who may lack comparable administrative experience.

The argument for continuity is especially persuasive in a state where development projects are closely connected to security and social stability. Rebuilding destroyed communities is not merely an infrastructure exercise. It involves restoring livelihoods, encouraging displaced residents to return, strengthening local government institutions, expanding access to education and healthcare, and creating conditions in which citizens can once again participate in economic life. If the APC can demonstrate measurable progress in these areas, its candidate will benefit from a strong incumbency narrative.

Gubio’s selection also appears to be a deliberate attempt to prevent the internal divisions that often weaken ruling parties before elections. Governorship contests can produce bitterness among aspirants, create rival political blocs, and trigger defections. When a party conducts a highly competitive primary without managing the grievances that follow, opposition parties may exploit the resulting divisions. The consensus arrangement is intended to prevent this outcome by settling the succession question early and presenting a united front.

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From the APC’s perspective, this is a rational political strategy. A consensus candidate can reduce campaign costs, limit destructive competition, and make it easier for party leaders to coordinate their political structures. It also offers aspiring politicians the opportunity to negotiate roles within a broader arrangement rather than engaging in an open contest that produces permanent winners and losers. If party leaders succeed in maintaining discipline, Gubio’s candidacy could become the center of an extensive coalition involving elected officials, party executives, traditional institutions, business interests, and grassroots mobilizers.

However, consensus politics can produce stability only when it is perceived as legitimate. If party members or citizens believe that the candidate was imposed without meaningful consultation, the appearance of unity may conceal resentment. Political agreement among powerful actors is not necessarily the same as broad public acceptance. The APC must therefore demonstrate that its consensus process was credible, transparent, and responsive to the interests of ordinary party members. Otherwise, dissatisfied politicians may remain within the party while quietly undermining the campaign.

The reported backing of Governor Zulum and Vice President Shettima gives Gubio a further advantage. Their support provides access to institutional networks, political experience, campaign resources, and a broad alliance within the APC. Governor Zulum remains an influential figure in Borno politics, while Vice President Shettima brings national visibility and strong political connections. Their joint support signals that Gubio is not merely an individual candidate but the chosen representative of a powerful political arrangement.

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This institutional backing could make it difficult for opposition parties to compete effectively. Elections are not won solely through popularity; they also depend on organization, funding, messaging, agents, logistics, coalition-building, and the ability to mobilize voters across diverse communities. A candidate supported by the governor and the vice president is likely to inherit a well-developed political structure. Opposition parties, by contrast, may face limited resources, internal disagreements, weak grassroots organization, and difficulty presenting a credible alternative to the ruling party’s reconstruction agenda.

Nevertheless, political machinery cannot eliminate public dissatisfaction. It can mobilize supporters, but it cannot permanently conceal governance failures. The APC will still need to answer questions about unemployment, poverty, insecurity, the condition of internally displaced persons, the effectiveness of resettlement programs, access to education, and the distribution of development projects. The more powerful the ruling party becomes, the greater the expectation that it should provide clear evidence of performance.

This is where the controversy surrounding the arrests linked to the #TinubuMustGo campaign becomes politically important. The campaign, regardless of its ideological position or popularity, represents a form of political expression. The reported arrest of individuals associated with it has triggered criticism because citizens in a democracy should not be treated as criminals merely for expressing opposition to a government or political leader. Where arrests are made, authorities have a responsibility to explain the legal basis, present credible evidence of wrongdoing, and ensure that suspects receive due process.

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Supporters of the government may argue that the arrests were necessary to prevent disorder, protect public security, or stop inflammatory activities. Borno’s history of violent conflict makes security a serious concern, and government officials cannot ignore credible threats. However, security arguments must not become a blanket justification for suppressing dissent. There is an important difference between peaceful political criticism and conduct that genuinely threatens public safety. A government committed to democratic legitimacy must distinguish between the two.

The backlash against Governor Zulum therefore extends beyond the specific arrests. It reflects a wider concern about the relationship between security governance and political freedom. In a state that has experienced terrorism and instability, citizens may accept certain security measures when they are lawful, necessary, and proportionate. They are less likely to accept arbitrary arrests, political intimidation, or the use of state power against peaceful critics. Such actions can deepen distrust and create the impression that the government fears public debate.

The controversy also creates a challenge for Gubio’s campaign. If the APC presents itself as the party of stability and continuity, it must clarify what kind of continuity it represents. Continuity in rebuilding infrastructure and restoring communities may be welcomed. Continuity in suppressing criticism would be far more damaging. Opposition parties will likely use the arrests to argue that the ruling party wants political control without accountability. They may portray Gubio’s endorsement as part of a broader effort to consolidate power and silence opposition before the election begins.

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For this reason, the APC should not dismiss the backlash as a temporary political disturbance. It should treat it as a warning. A government that commands strong institutional support can afford to be more confident in its response to criticism. It should investigate the circumstances surrounding the arrests, communicate openly with the public, and ensure that law enforcement agencies operate within constitutional limits. Transparency would not weaken the government; rather, it would strengthen its credibility.

The opposition also has responsibilities. It must not exploit public anger through misinformation, incitement, or reckless claims. A credible opposition should offer practical alternatives on security, reconstruction, education, healthcare, agriculture, job creation, and democratic reform. Criticism becomes politically persuasive when it is supported by facts and accompanied by a realistic program of government. Without this, opposition parties may remain dependent on the ruling party’s mistakes rather than building genuine public confidence.

Ultimately, the political contest in Borno State will be decided by more than party endorsements. The APC has gained an early advantage through the selection of a candidate with relevant experience, the promise of continuity, and the backing of influential leaders. Its consensus strategy may limit internal conflict and give Gubio a strong organizational platform. However, political strength is not a substitute for legitimacy. The party must still convince citizens that continuity will produce better lives, not merely preserve political control.

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The #TinubuMustGo controversy reinforces this point. Development and democracy cannot be separated. A state may rebuild roads and public buildings while weakening trust if citizens feel unable to criticize those in power. Conversely, political freedom without effective governance cannot address the material hardships facing communities. Borno requires both: sustained reconstruction and respect for constitutional rights.

The most persuasive path for the APC is therefore to combine its strongest political asset—continuity—with a clear commitment to accountability. Gubio should define his campaign through measurable development targets, public engagement, and an inclusive vision that extends beyond party loyalists. Governor Zulum and other party leaders should demonstrate that political stability does not require the suppression of legitimate dissent. The opposition, for its part, should transform criticism into a credible alternative rather than rely solely on controversy.

Borno State stands at an important political crossroads. The APC’s early consolidation has unsettled opposition parties and positioned Gubio as a formidable contender for 2027. Yet the same concentration of political power has intensified scrutiny of the government’s conduct.

• James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

Borno Politics: Power, Continuity, and the Fight for Democratic Space Ahead of 2027 Elections

Tinubu’s 2027 Gamble: Why Shettima Remains His Running Mate

By: Dr James Bwala

Many Nigerians are still wondering about President Bola Tinubu’s decision to retain Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election. They speak about religious balance and often relate to Atiku Abubakar and the coalition’s ticket. But it never reflects a strategic calculation built on loyalty, competence, electoral strength, and political stability that the Tinubu team put into consideration in their blueprints. Rather than altering a partnership that has remained relatively free of internal conflict, the All Progressives Congress (APC) appears determined to preserve a joint ticket that has already been tested in a competitive election and established a working relationship within the administration. Shettima’s continued presence offers Tinubu a combination of personal trust, administrative capacity, northern political influence, and institutional continuity. 

In a political environment where alliances can easily weaken under pressure, the relationship between Tinubu and Shettima has stood out for its apparent cohesion. Since the 2023 campaign, the two leaders have demonstrated strong early loyalty and a willingness to coordinate their political and governmental responsibilities. This absence of public friction is politically significant. Presidential tickets are not merely electoral arrangements; they are partnerships that must survive campaign pressures, policy disagreements, public criticism, and competing political interests. By retaining Shettima, Tinubu is signalling that the existing partnership remains useful, dependable, and capable of supporting the administration’s objectives through the 2027 election.

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One of the most important reasons for Shettima’s retention is his loyalty to President Tinubu. Political loyalty is often assessed not just through public declarations but also through the consistent conduct of a political ally during challenging times. Since becoming vice president, Shettima has largely maintained a supportive and coordinated public posture towards the president. He has not attempted to create an independent power centre that competes with the presidency, nor has he publicly challenged the administration’s central direction. Instead, he has played the role of a trusted deputy who reinforces the president’s agenda.

This type of loyalty is particularly valuable in a presidential system. A vice president occupies a position that can either strengthen or destabilise an administration. If the relationship between the president and vice president becomes strained, political disagreements may expand into public controversy, factional competition, and institutional paralysis. Tinubu’s decision to retain Shettima suggests that he values the stability created by a loyal deputy. The president knows the importance of maintaining unity at the highest level of government, especially as he prepares for another demanding national campaign.

Shettima’s loyalty also has political importance beyond his relationship with Tinubu. His continued support helps reassure influential political actors who participated in the formation of the 2023 ticket. Replacing him could create uncertainty among members of the APC, regional stakeholders, and northern political networks that supported the original arrangement. By maintaining the partnership, Tinubu reduces the likelihood of resentment among those who may interpret a change as a rejection of an established alliance.

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Competence is another major factor behind Shettima’s retention. As a former governor of Borno State, Shettima brought executive experience to the vice presidency. His background in managing a state affected by serious security and humanitarian challenges gave him practical knowledge of public administration, crisis management, and political negotiation. These experiences have enabled him to operate as more than a ceremonial deputy. He has represented the administration at major national and international events, defended government policies, and participated in efforts to explain the administration’s economic and development goals.

A competent vice president can provide the president with flexibility, as we all have been witnessing recently. The president cannot personally attend every meeting, regional engagement, diplomatic event, or policy discussion. Shettima’s capacity to represent Tinubu and articulate the government’s stance enables the administration to maintain an active and visible presence across various platforms. His experience and public speaking skills have made him a useful political representative for the government.

Adding to this, Shettima’s competence has been important in sustaining public confidence in the administration’s policy direction. The Tinubu government has pursued difficult reforms, including changes to fuel subsidy arrangements, economic management, and efforts to attract investment. Such policies have generated debate and public concern. A vice president who understands the administration’s objectives and can explain them coherently contributes to political reassurance. Retaining Shettima therefore allows Tinubu to preserve an experienced partner who is already familiar with the government’s policy framework.

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Shettima’s electoral record in Borno State is also a major asset. His success in maintaining a strong political base in Borno demonstrates his ability to organise support and mobilise voters. Borno is not only politically significant because of its population and location; it is also symbolically important as one of the states at the centre of the North-east geopolitical zone. A vice presidential candidate who commands loyalty in the region can contribute substantially to a national campaign.

The North-east remains an important component of Nigeria’s electoral calculations. The region contains millions of voters and has historically played a decisive role in presidential elections. Tinubu’s choice of Shettima in 2023 helped create a ticket that could appeal to voters across regional and religious lines. Retaining him for 2027 allows the APC to continue benefiting from the political networks already developed in the region. Changing the candidate could require the party to rebuild trust, renegotiate alliances, and persuade influential local actors to support a new arrangement.

Shettima’s electoral success in Borno is also evidence of organisational strength. Political campaigns depend not only on popular appeal but also on structures capable of registering supporters, communicating with voters, coordinating party officials, and ensuring turnout on election day. Shettima’s influence gives the APC an established foundation in the North-east. That foundation may be especially valuable in a close election, where a few percentage points in key states can determine the national outcome.

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Beyond Borno, Shettima provides access to a formidable northern political structure. His background, relationships, and experience have connected him to governors, legislators, traditional leaders, party officials, community organisations, and influential political figures across the northern region. Selecting a new running mate cannot easily replace these networks. Political structures are built over years through trust, shared interests, negotiations, and repeated cooperation. Keeping Shettima enables the APC to rely on an existing network instead of beginning again with an unfamiliar candidate.

This northern structure strengthens Tinubu’s national coalition. Nigeria’s political system requires presidential candidates to build broad alliances across regions and communities. A candidate who performs strongly in one part of the country but lacks acceptance elsewhere may struggle to win a nationwide election. Shettima helps Tinubu maintain the regional balance that was central to the 2023 campaign. His presence communicates continuity to northern voters while allowing Tinubu to present the joint ticket as a national partnership rather than a temporary electoral arrangement.

Another reason for retaining Shettima is the absence of significant internal friction between the president and vice president. Political observers have often seen disagreements between presidents and their deputies in Nigeria and elsewhere. Such tensions can weaken public confidence, encourage factionalism, and distract governments from their responsibilities. In contrast, the Tinubu-Shettima relationship has been characterised by public coordination and a shared presentation of the administration’s priorities.

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The value of this unity cannot be overstated. An administration facing economic pressures, security concerns, and public criticism needs a leadership team that can communicate with one voice. Internal disagreements are inevitable in any government, but they become dangerous when they are allowed to dominate public discussion. The apparent cooperation between Tinubu and Shettima has helped the administration project a degree of stability. Retaining the ticket preserves that image and assures party members that the leadership remains aligned.

The Presidency and the leadership of the House of Representatives have emphasised that continuity is necessary to strengthen stability and confidence in the administration’s policy direction. This argument is persuasive because governments require time to implement major reforms. Replacing the vice presidential candidate could lead to political speculation about changes in policy, priorities, and internal power relationships. Even if a new running mate were personally capable, the change could create questions about the unity of the administration and the future of its reform agenda.

Continuity does not automatically guarantee good governance, but it can support effective governance when the existing partnership is functional. Tinubu and Shettima have already developed methods of cooperation, understood their respective responsibilities, and established relationships with key officials. A new running mate would need time to develop the same level of coordination. In a political system already facing complex challenges, avoiding unnecessary disruption is a reasonable strategic choice.

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The partnership with the First Lady’s Renewed Hope Initiative further reinforces the case for continuity. Shettima’s cooperation with the initiative connects the vice presidency to programmes focused on social development, women, youth, health, and community welfare. This relationship has helped broaden the administration’s public image beyond economic and political issues. It demonstrates that the presidency is working through complementary channels to address the social consequences of national challenges.

Maintaining a coordinated relationship among the president, vice president, and the First Lady’s initiative can help the administration present a unified vision. It also allows programmes to continue without the confusion that might follow a major change in the leadership structure. Political stability is not only about elections and party organisations; it also concerns the continuity of programmes that affect citizens directly.

Also, the decision to retain Shettima reflects the APC’s desire to avoid unnecessary political risks. The submission of nomination forms by the party indicates confidence in the existing ticket and suggests that party strategists believe the partnership remains electorally viable. A change in running mate could produce several risks: disagreements among party leaders, dissatisfaction among northern stakeholders, competition among aspirants, and uncertainty among voters. It might also encourage opponents to portray the change as evidence of instability within the administration.

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No political arrangement is without risk, but replacing Shettima would introduce risks that the APC does not need to accept. He is already known to voters, has an established political base, understands the administration’s agenda, and has demonstrated loyalty to Tinubu. As the 2027 campaign councils are set to hit the ground running, the strategies from the blueprints are already speaking success for the APC. The opposition drops in the APC with Nyesome Wike of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Governor Charles Soludo of Anambra State and his counterpart from Osun State, Ademola Adeleke, and Tinubu, Shettima, and the APC will surely dance in 2027. 

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja. 

Tinubu’s 2027 Gamble: Why Shettima Remains His Running Mate

NDC North Central Women Leader Dumps Party for APC, Declares Support for Asiwaju

By: Halima Abdulkadir

Hajia Chief Hon. Musleemah Nike AbdulRahman, a former senatorial candidate for the Federal Capital Territory and a prominent advocate for women’s political participation, has announced her decision to join the All Progressives Congress (APC). Her formal defection is expected to be publicly announced at a later date in Abuja.

AbdulRahman’s decision is significant because of her extensive experience in political administration, grassroots mobilisation and gender advocacy. She previously served as Zonal Vice Chairman I of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the North Central, as well as Deputy National Woman Leader and Zonal Woman Leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). Her movement to the APC is therefore not merely a personal political decision; it reflects her search for a platform she believes is better positioned to promote constitutionalism, good governance, effective service delivery and women’s inclusion.

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According to AbdulRahman, her political journey has always been guided by the pursuit of truth, respect for constitutional order and a commitment to impactful service. She explained that her experience in the PDP and NDC offered valuable opportunities to contribute to grassroots engagement, party development and the advancement of women in politics. However, she said her resignation from the NDC became necessary because of what she described as the party’s disregard for its constitution, weak internal democracy and lack of a coherent national ideology.

She alleged that important decisions within the NDC were frequently taken outside the provisions of the party’s constitution and without sufficient consultation with established party organs. For a political organisation to function effectively, she argued, its constitution must be treated as the foundation of decision-making. Where rules are ignored, trust is weakened, members become disillusioned and the party’s ability to provide credible leadership is compromised.

AbdulRahman also criticised what she described as the absence of a verifiable organisational structure for women, youths and genuine party members within the NDC. She referred to the alleged lack of credible ward registers, properly inaugurated executives at the ward, local government and zonal levels, appointment letters and clear terms of reference. In her view, these deficiencies make it difficult for members to understand their responsibilities, contribute meaningfully or receive recognition for their efforts.

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Her decision to join the APC is based on her conviction that the party offers a more organised and ideologically grounded platform. She said she was attracted by the APC’s stated commitment to justice, peace, unity and progressive change, as well as its potential to support the implementation of President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

“I did not join APC because it is the largest party in Africa. I joined because it is the only party with a working ideology of progressive change, with a creed of justice, peace and unity,” she stated.

This explanation presents her defection as an ideological choice rather than an opportunistic move. AbdulRahman believes that political membership should be driven by principles, not merely by the size or electoral strength of a party. She sees the APC as a platform through which she can translate her experience and advocacy into practical programmes that benefit women, youths and grassroots communities.

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As a stakeholder in the Arewa for Asiwaju (A4A) FCT Chapter, AbdulRahman is expected to play an important role in mobilising support for the APC and President Tinubu ahead of the 2027 general elections. She has pledged loyalty to the President, the APC national leadership, governors and other organs of the party. She also called on her supporters, women across the North Central, former associates in the PDP and NDC, and other advocates of good governance to join the APC and support the A4A movement.

Women’s inclusion remains central to her political message. AbdulRahman insists that women should not be used merely to satisfy numerical or symbolic requirements. Instead, they should participate directly in policy formulation, party administration and leadership. “In APC, the Constitution is respected. Structure is supreme. Women do not just have a seat; we have a table,” she said.

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Her statement reflects a broader demand for meaningful representation. Women must be recognised not only as voters and mobilisers but also as decision-makers capable of shaping political priorities and public policy. Political parties that provide women with genuine opportunities for leadership are more likely to benefit from their experience, organisational skills and connection with communities.

AbdulRahman’s declaration, “APC is home. A4A is the movement. Asiwaju is the answer,” captures her commitment to the party and its leadership. Whether her defection will significantly influence the political landscape will depend on how effectively she mobilises her supporters and contributes to the APC’s grassroots structure. Nevertheless, her move reinforces the importance of internal democracy, constitutional discipline and inclusive leadership in Nigeria’s political parties.

Her decision is ultimately a call for political organisations to build credible structures, respect their rules and create room for all members—especially women and young people—to contribute to governance. Through the APC and the A4A movement, AbdulRahman hopes to help shape a future defined by inclusive politics, stronger institutions and effective service to the people.

NDC North Central Women Leader Dumps Party for APC, Declares Support for Asiwaju