Politics
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
By: Dr. James Bwala
The recent political maneuver by former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, left many political observers laughing. El-Rufai remains a new clown in the political arena since his rejection as a minister from Kaduna State under the Tinubu administration. El-Rufai’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) represents a calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s 2027 reelection bid. El-Rufai’s move, characterized by claims of ideological divergence from the APC, appears more rooted in personal political ambitions than substantive systemic transformation, which he continually hopes Nigerians believe.
Critical analysis suggests that El-Rufai’s defection is symptomatic of intra-elite power reconfiguration rather than a genuine oppositional movement. The strategic repositioning reflects deeper fractures within Nigeria’s political landscape, where elite negotiations supersede meaningful democratic representation. While El-Rufai attempts to mobilize opposition figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, the fundamental power structures remain remarkably unchanged.
Ultimately, the proposed alliance faces significant challenges. The fragmentation of opposition forces, combined with the APC’s entrenched political machinery, renders El-Rufai’s efforts potentially futile. His defection might be interpreted as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantive challenge to the incumbent administration, highlighting the persistent limitations of Nigeria’s contemporary political dynamics. He has been seen moving from one big political figure to another, including going to the home of the former president in an attempt to give credence to his moves, yet he could not clean up the traces of his aging and diminishing relevance in the circle of politics. Despite El-Rufai’s efforts, the entrenched political dynamics and the lack of a cohesive ideological framework within the opposition diminish the likelihood of any substantial electoral upset in 2027.
The lack of a unified vision and coherent policy proposals among these opposition figures only exacerbates their inability to present a credible alternative to the electorate. Given the historical context of electoral politics in Nigeria, the absence of a cohesive opposition strategy further compounds the challenge of altering the status quo, rendering El-Rufai’s defection more an act of political theater than a catalyst for genuine change. Moreover, the entrenched interests and loyalties within the APC continue to present formidable barriers to any meaningful opposition realignment.
The political landscape appears to be more about individual ambitions and less about a unified front capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent powers. This scenario underscores the cyclical nature of political realignments in Nigeria, where shifts often reflect personal ambitions rather than a genuine ideological departure from established norms. While El-Rufai’s attempts to forge alliances with other opposition figures such as Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso signal a desire to create a formidable coalition, the reality remains that such alliances often crumble under the weight of competing interests and personal ambitions, leaving the electorate disillusioned with yet another cycle of political theatrics. Moreover, the historical pattern of political defections in Nigeria suggests that such moves are often perceived as mere strategic repositioning rather than genuine ideological shifts.
Despite the theatrical nature of these political maneuvers, the entrenched power dynamics and loyalty networks within Nigeria’s political landscape make it exceedingly difficult for any new coalition, no matter how strategically crafted, to truly upend the status quo. While El-Rufai’s intentions may appear bold, they are unlikely to disrupt the deeply entrenched political machinery that has long favored incumbents like Tinubu and Shettima.
Despite these efforts, the pervasive influence of existing political structures suggests that any such coalition is more likely to fracture under pressure rather than mount a successful challenge. Given the entrenched interests and historical voting patterns, it appears unlikely that such a coalition could effectively disrupt the established political dominance of Tinubu and Shettima in the upcoming election. This skepticism is further compounded by the perception that El-Rufai’s defection and subsequent coalition-building efforts are more about personal political survival than a genuine commitment to transformative change. Despite the apparent allure of a united front, the reality remains that these alliances often falter under the weight of conflicting agendas and entrenched political loyalties. Moreover, the historical precedent of political realignments in Nigeria often results in temporary alliances that lack the cohesion necessary to present a formidable challenge to established power structures.
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The skepticism surrounding El-Rufai’s defection is echoed by the Nigerian Presidency and APC, who dismiss his move as a futile endeavor motivated by personal ambition rather than a genuine ideological shift. Indeed, El-Rufai’s maneuver is less about ideological realignment and more a reconfiguration of elite power dynamics within the ruling class. As observed by many political analysts, the political landscape remains largely unchanged, with the same elite power dynamics at play, suggesting that any perceived threat from El-Rufai’s move is unlikely to materialize into a significant challenge.
This skepticism is further reinforced by the broader historical context of Nigerian politics, where similar attempts to consolidate opposition forces have often unraveled due to internal dissent and the prioritization of individual ambitions over collective goals. Additionally, the inherent volatility of such coalitions, often marred by a lack of unified vision and the dominance of competing interests, further diminishes their potential to unseat entrenched incumbents. Historical patterns also suggest that such coalitions often struggle to sustain momentum and coherence, especially when faced with the entrenched influence of incumbents like Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.
Given this context, El-Rufai’s efforts to rally opposition figures like Peter Obi and others around the SDP banner might appear ambitious, but without a cohesive strategy or compelling ideological narrative, such alliances are prone to fragmentation and ultimately ineffectual in altering the prevailing status quo.
The entrenched political machinery supporting President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima possesses significant resources and influence, making it a formidable barrier for any nascent coalition lacking internal solidarity and a resonant national platform. Despite these strategic maneuvers, the historical precedent and current political landscape suggest that El-Rufai’s efforts may ultimately falter against the deeply entrenched systems supporting Tinubu and Shettima.
The historical resilience of incumbent structures in Nigerian politics, characterized by their adept patronage networks and control over vital state apparatuses, presents another significant challenge for any opposition coalition seeking to disrupt the status quo. Without a clear ideological foundation and a unified agenda that resonates with the broader electorate, such attempts are often perceived as mere political repositioning rather than genuine efforts to instigate meaningful change. In 2027, President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima will take the oath again for the second time, and El-Rufai will still have no political credibility to make a difference in Nigeria’s political circle.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
VP Kashim Shettima: Fate, Faith, and Lessons (2)
When considering leadership style in Nigeria today, one can confidently agree to the fact that Vice President Kashim Shettima’s approach to leadership, which emphasizes dialogue and strategic collaboration, serves as an antidote to the divisive narratives that have historically plagued the Nigerian political landscape. His leadership, therefore, can be seen as a beacon of hope in a political environment often criticized for its lack of effective direction and accountability. His approach underscores the importance of principled leadership that seeks to dismantle barriers through understanding and mutual respect, setting a precedent for future political discourse in Nigeria.
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Shettima’s commitment to these principles is particularly significant in a nation where political decisions are often overshadowed by religious and ethnic tensions. Shettima’s advocacy for equitable representation, even when faced with controversy, demonstrates his commitment to fostering a political environment where all voices are heard and respected. By advocating for a Southern Christian Senate President, even amidst potential backlash, Shettima exemplifies his willingness to prioritize national unity over partisan interests. His efforts reflect a conscious departure from the status quo, as he seeks to build a political culture that values fairness and inclusivity over entrenched biases. In this light, Shettima’s leadership style not only challenges the status quo but also provides a framework for how political decisions can transcend traditional divides to foster a more united and progressive Nigeria.
In doing so, Shettima not only acknowledges the complex layers of Nigeria’s socio-political fabric but also actively engages in reshaping it to reflect a more harmonious and integrated national identity. Shettima’s actions resonate with the need for a political paradigm that embraces diversity as a strength rather than a challenge, urging other leaders to adopt similar stances in pursuit of national cohesion. This approach not only challenges existing norms but also sets a powerful example for future leaders to follow in bridging divides and promoting a more unified national agenda.
This commitment to bridging divides and fostering inclusivity is particularly significant in a nation where historical grievances often fuel distrust and division. By emphasizing the importance of equitable representation across Nigeria’s diverse regions and faiths, Shettima’s stance offers a pathway to mitigate religious tensions that have historically plagued the nation’s political landscape. By prioritizing inclusivity and equitable representation, Shettima charts a course that not only addresses immediate political challenges but also lays the groundwork for enduring peace and stability.
This vision is not only timely but also essential, as it calls for a re-evaluation of political alliances and strategies to ensure that they are inclusive and reflective of the nation’s diverse populace. By advocating for a Southern Christian Senate President, as discussed in recent debates, Shettima exemplifies his commitment to fostering an inclusive political environment that transcends religious and ethnic lines. By advocating for this inclusive approach, he not only addresses the immediate concerns of political representation but also paves the way for a more harmonious future by acknowledging and respecting the diverse fabric of Nigerian society.
This approach aligns with the broader need for political strategies that prioritize unity over division, ensuring that the governance of Nigeria is more representative and just. By fostering a political environment that values diversity and inclusivity, Shettima’s leadership could serve as a catalyst for transforming Nigeria’s governance into one that truly reflects the nation’s rich tapestry of identities. By fostering a political environment that values diversity and inclusivity, Shettima’s leadership could serve as a catalyst for transforming Nigeria’s governance into one that truly reflects the nation’s rich tapestry of identities.
Moreover, by prioritizing a governance model that embraces diversity and inclusivity, Shettima not only champions equitable representation but also sets a precedent for addressing the deep-seated challenges of religious and ethnic bigotry in Nigerian politics. By emphasizing the importance of equitable political representation, Shettima’s vision challenges the status quo and encourages a shift towards governance that upholds justice and equality for all Nigerians, irrespective of their religious or ethnic backgrounds.
This vision of governance, deeply rooted in the principles of justice and equality, challenges the entrenched systems that have historically marginalized certain groups and seeks to create a more equitable political landscape for future generations. By fostering a political environment that values diversity and inclusivity, Shettima’s leadership could serve as a catalyst for transforming Nigeria’s governance into one that truly reflects the nation’s rich tapestry of identities. Shettima’s approach, therefore, is not just a political strategy but a moral imperative to foster unity and mitigate the divisive forces of religious intolerance.
Such a commitment to inclusivity and balance is crucial in a nation where historical religious tensions have often fueled discord and division. In this context, Shettima’s advocacy for a governance model that prioritizes balance and inclusivity, even when it involves difficult decisions like supporting a Southern Christian Senate President over a potentially more qualified Northern Muslim candidate, reflects his commitment to fostering national harmony. This approach, as highlighted in recent discussions, underscores the necessity for political strategies that transcend mere electoral gains and instead focus on reinforcing the social fabric through genuine representation and inclusivity.
This nuanced perspective on governance, emphasizing the importance of equitable representation, resonates with the broader discourse on political inclusivity in Nigeria.
James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
VP Kashim Shettima: Fate, Faith, and Lessons (2)
Defunct CPC’s Forum of State Chairmen: We owe a duty to Support Tinubu, Leadership of APC
By: Michael Mike
The Forum of State Chairmen of the defunct Congress for Progressives’ Change (CPC) has declared their support for President Bola Tinubu, stating that the breakaway members from the All Progressives Congress (APC) have merely exercised their democratic rights.
The group in a statement signed by the National Secretary, Sulaiman Oyaremi, and representatives of each of the zones, Lekan Obolo, Mike Agbe, Enyinnaya Ibiam Nnachi, Isah Ramatu Saidu, Ahmad Dawayo and Musa Abubakar Damaliki said: “We believe that we owe ourselves a duty to support the current leader of the party, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and contribute to the transformation of APC into an inclusive institution where all stakeholders would have a sense of belonging and ownership.”
The statement read: “We, members of the Forum of State Chairmen of the defunct Congress for Progressives’ Change (CPC), have observed with discomfort the way the CPC bloc in the ruling All Progressives’ Congress (APC) has become a subject of political controversy in recent times.
“Unfortunately, with several camps speaking for the defunct CPC, the situation has exposed a lack of coherent leadership within the bloc. We are further concerned that this development signposts a lack of inclusiveness in the leadership of APC and the government it birthed.
“It is a self-evident reality that members of the defunct CPC, especially former State Chairmen of the legacy party, have not been treated fairly either through government appointments or party apparatus both at the national and state levels, their contributions to the electoral successes of the party notwithstanding.
“Against the conflicting statements concerning the position of the CPC bloc within the APC, we believe that those who chose to either leave or remain in APC have merely exercised their democratic rights
“On our part, as members of the Forum for State Chairmen of the defunct CPC, while we do not begrudge those who have decided to quit APC, we wish to state without any ambiguity that, except for a few of us, we are unanimous in our decision to remain in the party with our principal, former President Muhammadu Buhari.
“We also want to use this medium to call the attention of the President to the multifarious challenges that Nigerians face. The high level of insecurity and economic hardship are becoming existential threats to many citizens.
“It is, therefore, important that the President, APC governments at all levels and the leadership of the party give these challenges the desired attention. These issues of governance, rather than the 2027 elections, should constitute our priority as we move closer to the second anniversary of the current government.”
Defunct CPC’s Forum of State Chairmen: We owe a duty to Support Tinubu, Leadership of APC
2027: The Coalition, the resistance North, and the APC’s Path to Victory
By: Dr. James Bwala
The political landscape in Nigeria ahead of the 2027 elections suggests an imminent collapse of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), while the Social Democratic Party (SDP) may emerge as the primary opposition, but it will ultimately lose to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) by a wider margin. The PDP’s internal divisions and resistance to coalition-building, particularly its governors’ rejection of alliances with LP and SDP, significantly weaken its viability as a competitive force. This fragmentation undermines any effective challenge against APC’s entrenched dominance.
Despite attempts by figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to unite opposition forces, the lack of cohesion within PDP and between opposition parties inhibits a strong front against APC. Analysts emphasize that without strategic coalitions, no single party can match APC’s electoral machinery or political influence. Even if SDP consolidates opposition votes, its structural weaknesses and limited reach foreshadow a defeat by an even larger margin than previous contests.
Indeed, with growing complexities accompanying the political landscape, Nigeria’s multiparty system faces realignment where PDP and LP risk extinction due to disunity, while SDP’s isolated struggle against APC is unlikely to alter electoral outcomes significantly. The evidence underscores that only a united opposition coalition could potentially reduce APC’s dominance; however, current dynamics indicate this remains improbable before 2027.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, the potential for a unified opposition remains hindered by entrenched party loyalties and strategic misalignments, further solidifying APC’s path to a more decisive victory. The entrenched influence of APC’s political machinery and its strategic alliances, such as the strengthening of the Tinubu-Shettima partnership, further complicate any opposition efforts to mount a significant challenge in 2027.
Many political pundits have agreed that the All Progressives Congress (APC) is strategically positioned to dismantle opposition forces ahead of the 2027 Nigerian elections by capitalizing on the fragmented nature of its adversaries. The opposition currently consists of disparate groups: former presidential contenders who reject APC’s governance, disaffected ex-APC members seeking influence, and erstwhile party leaders now opposing the APC. This lack of cohesion undermines any effective coalition-building efforts, a critical weakness given Nigeria’s history, where opposition alliances frequently collapse due to internal strife and competing ambitions.
For now, the APC is leveraging its narrative of competent governance, contrasting with the perceived failures of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which it accuses of prolonged misrule and internal discord. By emphasizing PDP’s factionalism and incompetence, APC consolidates public trust while portraying itself as Nigeria’s stable alternative. This discourse not only weakens PDP’s credibility but also sows doubt about any potential opposition coalition.
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In essence, through exploiting opposition fragmentation and promoting its governance record against a divided PDP, loosely LP, and undecided SDP, the APC is poised to reduce opposition to rubble in 2027. The inability of opposition factions to unify effectively ensures that APC’s dominance remains largely unchallenged in forthcoming electoral contests.
Angry leaders from the north are falling over themselves to raise regional political forces. But this too is no match for the readiness expected of the region. Despite the North’s considerable demographic and electoral influence, many Northerners feel marginalized due to perceived neglect in appointments and resource distribution, fueling a sense of betrayal. This dissatisfaction is compounded by internal divisions rooted in insecurity, poverty, and inter-communal conflicts that undermine the North’s collective political strength. As a result, these fractures could weaken the region’s capacity to negotiate effectively within national politics or present a unified opposition to Tinubu and Kashim Shettima, the APC’s dominance.
Demands from key sub-regions such as North-Central illustrate emerging fissures within Northern political interests. Stakeholders from this area insist on the presidency for 2027 and have conditioned their support for Tinubu’s reelection on replacing his vice president with a candidate from their region. Such demands underscore the potential for intensified competition among Northern factions rather than solidarity. This internal contestation risks diluting the North’s overall influence if not carefully managed. To this effect, unless Northern leaders address these internal challenges and reconcile divergent regional aspirations, political disunity may jeopardize their strategic position in 2027.
The combination of grassroots grievances and elite rivalries is indeed opening ways for APC to exploit these divisions through tactical maneuvering, thereby diminishing Northern Nigeria’s historical leverage in Nigerian politics. It is imperative that cohesive strategies are developed to unify Northern voices if they are to maintain relevance in forthcoming elections.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
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