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2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.

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2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.

2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.

By: Dr. James Bwala

If it doesn’t function in SDP, how will it work in ADC? We were taught in basic school science that oil and water do not mix. If this metaphor is any indication, it describes the character and style of the trio who want President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima to leave the Aso Rock Villa by May 29, 2027.

The Nigerian political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections is witnessing significant realignments, particularly with the emergence of a potential coalition involving Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party), and Nasir El-Rufai (Social Democratic Party). This alliance aims to challenge the incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his running mate Shettima, signaling a strategic move to consolidate opposition forces against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). 

Despite these developments, reports suggest that Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai are losing political ground due to internal fractures and challenges in harmonizing their distinct party platforms into a cohesive coalition. The APC remains cautious but confident, downplaying the threat posed by this opposition alliance while capitalizing on its incumbency advantages. Moreover, security concerns surrounding key opposition figures like El-rufai and Peter Obi highlight systemic issues that may undermine opposition unity and effectiveness.

While the planned coalition presents a formidable challenge to Tinubu’s administration, its success hinges on overcoming ideological differences and addressing vulnerabilities within opposition ranks. The low voter turnout in previous elections also casts uncertainty on whether such coalitions can mobilize sufficient grassroots support to unseat entrenched incumbents in Nigeria’s complex political environment. 

El-Rufai was allegedly said to have run to SDP in order to be a placeholder for Atiku. However, reports breaking suggested that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, and former Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State have collectively adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the official platform for their opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 Nigerian general election. According to them, this strategic alliance marks a significant realignment in Nigeria’s political landscape. These prominent figures seek to challenge the incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his All Progressives Congress (APC) party. The coalition aims to consolidate opposition forces under a unified banner, thereby enhancing their electoral competitiveness.

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They thought they had found good ground in the SDP, setting their political balls rolling. But we learned of numerous problems and the infighting amongst them that informed new decisions, which they are claiming realignment. Adewole Adebayo, the 2023 presidential candidate for the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has unequivocally declared that he will not withdraw his candidacy in favor of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the forthcoming 2027 general elections. This statement marks a significant stance within Nigeria’s evolving political landscape, especially considering Atiku’s prominence as a leading figure in the People’s Democratic Party. Adebayo’s refusal to step down reflects his commitment to offering an alternative political vision through the SDP, highlighting the increasing fragmentation and diversification of political competition in Nigeria.

By maintaining his candidacy despite pressure to consolidate opposition forces behind Atiku Abubakar, Adebayo emphasizes the importance of ideological independence and electoral contestation. This dynamic also points to potential challenges within opposition politics, where coalition-building efforts may face resistance from emerging parties seeking distinct platforms. Consequently, Adebayo’s position could influence strategic alliances and voter alignments ahead of Nigeria’s critical 2027 elections. 

The ADC, established in 2005 and officially registered by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 2006, has gained renewed relevance through this high-profile adoption. Historically endorsed by influential leaders such as former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2018, the ADC now serves as a viable platform for opposition collaboration. Reports indicate ongoing efforts to restructure and strengthen the party’s organizational framework to support this coalition effectively. This development underscores an effort to create a level playing field for all political actors irrespective of their origins within Nigeria’s multi-ethnic context.

While official public announcements remain forthcoming, insider sources confirm that this coalition reflects a shared commitment among Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai to present a formidable alternative to APC dominance. However, the political dynamics involving Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai exemplify the metaphor of oil and water—elements inherently incompatible and resistant to blending. Their divergent ideologies, regional interests, and leadership styles generate tension within any coalition they form, resulting in inherent cracks that undermine unity. This fragmentation fosters uncertainty among supporters and stakeholders, weakening the coalition’s overall cohesion and strategic direction. Such internal discord often manifests as conflicting policy priorities and public disagreements that erode trust both within the alliance and among the electorate.

I believe that the inability of these leaders to reconcile their differences jeopardizes their collective political objectives. The coalition’s instability not only diminishes its bargaining power but also opens avenues for opposition forces to exploit these divisions. Consequently, this loose ground hampers effective governance planning and implementation, reflecting broader challenges in Nigerian politics where heterogeneous interests struggle to find common ground. Therefore, without deliberate efforts towards genuine compromise and collaboration, coalitions involving Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.

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PDP Convention: Group backs Gov. Fintiri, Madagali

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PDP Convention: Group backs Gov. Fintiri, Madagali

Ganye Chiefdom has passed a vote of confidence in the leadership of Gov. Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri of Adamawa as Chairman, 2025 PDP National Convention and Alhaji Hamza Madagali, party Chairman Adamawa Chapter ahead of 2027 General Elections.

The Chiefdom comprises Ganye, Tango and Jada Local Government Areas including part of Mayo-Belwa.

Alhaji Kashim Jidda, leader of the delegation stated this when they paid a solidarity visit to the newly elected executive of the party in the state in Yola.

He said, Gov. Fintiri has laid a legacy in the state and assured their loyalty and support for the success of the party from the grassroots up to the national level.

Jidda appealed to Fintiri to reconstruct Ganye-Jada road to ease the suffering of people and to boost the economic activities in the area.

He also urged Fintiri to find a credible person who would succeed him after his two terms in office to sustain the success and progress of the state.

In his remarks, Madagali expressed appreciation for the visit and described it as one of the special visits to the party.

He commended the Chiefdom for supporting the party during the recent by-election in the area.

According to him, with that they have confidence in them and urged them to double their effort to ensure the success of the party to come 2027 General Elections.

“Going by the constitution of the country and that of the party nobody can stop PDP from winning the election in the forthcoming general election”, he said.

PDP Convention: Group backs Gov. Fintiri, Madagali

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The Unmatched Humility of Vice President Kashim Shettima: A Testament to Leadership in Nigeria

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The Unmatched Humility of Vice President Kashim Shettima: A Testament to Leadership in Nigeria

The Unmatched Humility of Vice President Kashim Shettima: A Testament to Leadership in Nigeria

By: Dr. James Bwala

In the complex landscape of Nigerian politics, leadership often comes with profound challenges, especially in a nation marked by diverse cultures, religions, and regions. In this milieu, humility emerges as a crucial trait for effective leadership. What Vice President Kashim Shettima said at the gathering in Enugu, where he received Governor Peter Mbah and thousands of decampees, reveals his strategic formula for winning oppositions both on political and personal grounds. “I find myself in a unique position, serving as the Vice President of Nigeria, and yet, it is important to acknowledge the exemplary leadership of my governor, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum of Borno State… My experience underlines an irrefutable truth.” Indeed, true leaders inspire through their humility and ethical governance, benefiting both their immediate constituency and the broader nation.

Vice President Kashim Shettima has not only been a significant figure in Nigeria’s political sphere but also a testament to the power of humility in leadership. Historically, Nigerian political dynamics have often revolved around power plays, tribal affiliations, and sycophantic politics, where loyalty is frequently bought rather than earned. In contrast, Shettima’s relationship with his governor offers a refreshing perspective—one rooted firmly in respect and recognition of genuine leadership capabilities. The indispensable nature of humility in governance, as exemplified by the unique relationship between Vice President Shettima and Governor Zulum, goes beyond politics.

First, it is imperative to delineate what we mean by humility in leadership. Humility is often misconstrued as weakness or submissiveness; however, in the realm of effective governance, it denotes a leader’s willingness to prioritize the needs of others above their own ego. Humility fosters collaboration, respect, and trust—qualities essential for any leader striving to implement policies for the good of all citizens. When leaders openly acknowledge their limitations and the contributions of others, they cultivate an environment conducive to innovation and collective success.

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In the context of Nigeria, where communal ties are deeply entrenched, humility plays a pivotal role in bridging divides. Kashim Shettima’s humility is evident in his approach to governance, where he acknowledges the invaluable contributions of Governor Zulum. When leaders operate within a framework that promotes mutual respect and cooperation, there is a tangible impact on the political climate. Shettima’s acknowledgment of Zulum’s leadership transcends the typical vice presidential role; it illustrates a partnership that inspires unity among citizens who rely on effective governance for their well-being.

Indeed, humility acts as a catalyst for responsiveness in leadership. Engaged leaders often listen actively to the voices of their constituents. Shettima’s support for Zulum’s initiatives, particularly his focus on education, healthcare, and rebuilding efforts in Borno State after years of insurgency, embodies this quality. Instead of competing with his governor, Shettima amplifies his vision and policies, ensuring that the plight of the people is addressed holistically. This symbiotic relationship serves as a model for how humility can drive progress, as the vice president utilizes his platform to elevate the work being done at the state level.

A notable instance illustrating this principle occurred during the Boko Haram crisis, which had devastated Borno State. Governor Zulum, renowned for his hands-on approach to governance, sought to provide relief and rehabilitation for displaced persons. Rather than distancing himself from the governor’s efforts, Shettima stepped forward, providing necessary federal support to facilitate these initiatives. This collaborative effort not only underscored the importance of cooperative governance but also demonstrated how humility can lead to more effective and compassionate responses to crisis situations.

The personal attributes of Vice President Shettima resonate powerfully with the citizens of Nigeria. In a time when politicians are often seen as distant and disconnected from the struggles of the average Nigerian, Shettima’s genuine approach stands in stark contrast. His ability to speak candidly and without pretense has fostered a sense of trust between himself, Governor Zulum, and the population they serve. This transparency is vital in an era where skepticism about political motives runs rampant. By embodying humility, Shettima encourages hope and empowerment, inspiring citizens to engage more actively in the democratic process.

However, it is essential to recognize that humility does not equate to indecisiveness or lack of authority. On the contrary, the most humble leaders often possess the confidence to make difficult decisions, rooted in their commitment to serving the greater good. Shettima illustrates this point clearly; he has navigated complex political terrains while remaining steadfastly supportive of Zulum’s initiatives. This combination of humility and decisiveness creates a strong leadership fabric that reassures citizens of their leaders’ commitment to their welfare.

The reciprocal nature of the Shettima-Zulum relationship invites a broader dialogue on the cultural paradigms of leadership in Nigeria. As we analyze the prevailing political narratives, it becomes evident that a shift toward humility-driven leadership could transform the nation’s governance landscape. The precedents set by Shettima and Zulum should inspire other leaders to adopt similar principles, prioritizing service and community over personal gain and ambition.

Critics may question whether such humility can be sustained in a political arena often characterized by competition and adversarial relationships. However, history has shown us that transformative change arises from consistent action and advocacy for shared values. For Nigeria to thrive, its leaders must cultivate environments where collaboration and respect prevail over discord. The Shettima-Zulum dynamic reinforces the idea that leveraging each other’s strengths leads to authentic, impactful governance.

The legacy of humility in leadership could reshape Nigeria’s political culture, fostering an atmosphere of accountability and ethical governance. When humility becomes a norm rather than an exception, we will witness a reduction in corruption and a rise in leaders genuinely dedicated to public service. The collective consciousness of a nation that embraces this ethos would empower citizens to hold their leaders accountable, thereby enhancing democracy’s effectiveness.

This exceptional humility of Vice President Kashim Shettima towards Governor Babagana Umara Zulum presents an invaluable model for leadership in Nigeria. This relationship illustrates how humility can serve not only as a personal virtue but also as a strategic asset in governance. By embracing humility, leaders can cultivate collaboration, engage authentically with their constituents, and drive meaningful change. 

The leadership approach of Shettima and Zulum stands as a beacon of hope for a nation yearning for transformative governance. As we move forward, it is imperative that we encourage our leaders to embody humility, recognizing that true greatness in leadership stems from a commitment to service and a deep respect for the collective journey towards national progress.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

The Unmatched Humility of Vice President Kashim Shettima: A Testament to Leadership in Nigeria

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The NLC vs. Shettima: A Misplaced Blame Game in Labor Rights

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The NLC vs. Shettima: A Misplaced Blame Game in Labor Rights

The NLC vs. Shettima: A Misplaced Blame Game in Labor Rights

By: Dr. James Bwala

The National Labour Congress (NLC) has taken a critical stance against Vice President Kashim Shettima, alleging that he is shielding Aliko Dangote, a prominent industrialist, from the enforcement of labor laws. This assertion has sparked a heated debate regarding the role of government officials in upholding worker rights and the actual motivations behind the NLC’s criticisms. At first glance, the accusations may seem valid, but a deeper analysis reveals numerous inconsistencies and suggests that the NLC itself might be misdirecting its frustrations and VP Kashim Shettima is right. 

I read the lines from a caption on Vanguard Newspapers with deep thoughts; it is imperative to understand the context in which these accusations have been made. The Nigerian labor landscape has faced significant challenges, particularly in the oil sector, where safety, remuneration, and working conditions have been contentious issues. The PENGASAN (Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria) is at the forefront of advocating for oil workers’ rights, and any perceived negligence by government officials, including top leadership, can understandably provoke outrage among its members. However, the NLC’s allegations appear to be more rooted in political maneuvering than substantive labor advocacy.

The NLC’s response to Shettima’s alleged protection of Dangote suggests a failure to appreciate the complexities of governance and the intersection between industry and labor rights. Shettima, as the Vice President, operates within a framework that requires balancing economic growth with labor rights. Dangote Industries represents a significant pillar of the Nigerian economy, contributing to job creation and fiscal revenue. Therefore, while it is vital for labor laws to be upheld, it is equally important to recognize the economic context in which these laws operate. Shielding an influential businessman like Dangote may not necessarily equate to an abandonment of labor rights; instead, it may reflect a broader strategy aimed at sustaining economic stability.

The notion that the NLC is advocating purely for the rights of oil workers becomes questionable when one considers the alleged “trickling profits of PENGASAN.” If NLC leaders are indeed benefiting from the very system they claim to challenge, it raises serious ethical questions about their motivations. Are they genuinely committed to improving labor conditions, or are they merely leveraging their position for personal gain? This potential conflict of interest dilutes the message of the NLC and raises skepticism regarding its criticisms of high-profile figures like Shettima.

One must also consider the implications of a targeted campaign against Dangote. The business environment in Nigeria is already fraught with challenges, including regulatory hurdles, corruption, and infrastructural deficits. Discrediting essential businesses and their leadership could have far-reaching consequences for the economy, disproportionately affecting the very workers the NLC claims to represent. Instead of pursuing a confrontational approach, dialogues and negotiations with industry leaders may lead to more fruitful outcomes for workers. The NLC should consider strategies that involve cooperative engagement rather than baseless allegations, fostering a climate of collaboration that can yield real improvements in labor conditions.

The existing labor laws in Nigeria need to be reevaluated and perhaps revised to meet the changing dynamics of the workforce. In their current form, many of these legislations do not adequately address modern workplace realities. The NLC must prioritize reforming these laws to ensure they protect workers effectively without stifling economic growth. By focusing efforts on legislative improvement rather than personal attacks, the NLC could present itself as a constructive force in the labor movement, focusing on solutions rather than scapegoats.

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The NLC’s criticism does not only undermine its integrity but can also alienate potential allies in the quest for labor reform. Kashim Shettima, being part of the government, could be an instrumental ally in driving positive changes in labor laws if approached correctly. The decision to position him as an antagonist may close off avenues for potential collaboration and thwart progress in labor advocacy. The NLC risks marginalizing itself and losing the support of the very workers it strives to help by adopting this combative strategy.

Critics of Shettima argue that the vice president should unequivocally stand against influential businessmen who disregard labor laws. However, this perspective overlooks the intricacies of leadership and the need for strategic alliances in governance. While Shettima has a duty to uphold labor rights, he also has to consider the broader economic implications of his actions. A nuanced approach to labor relations, taking into account the economic realities facing Nigeria, will ultimately benefit workers more than knee-jerk reactions and targeted blame assessments.

For many Nigerians, it is crucial to acknowledge that the responsibility of upholding labor rights does not lie solely on government officials. Businesses, including Dangote’s, must also take accountability for ensuring fair labor practices within their operations. There is a shared responsibility among all stakeholders—government, labor unions, and businesses—to create a sustainable framework for labor rights. Thus, instead of vilifying individuals, conversations should be directed toward fostering a culture of compliance and ethical practice across all sectors.

While the concerns raised by the NLC regarding labor rights are undoubtedly valid, blaming Vice President Kashim Shettima for allegedly shielding Dangote oversimplifies a multifaceted issue. The NLC must critically evaluate its position, recognizing that effective labor advocacy involves collaboration, dialogue, and a commitment to reforming existing laws for the benefit of all. Rather than waging a dispute based on political posturing, stakeholders should unite in the pursuit of a healthier labor environment that respects both workers’ rights and the economic imperatives of the nation. By doing so, they can transform the narrative from one of contention to a shared vision for progress, ensuring that the interests of Nigerian workers are met with both compassion and pragmatism. 

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

The NLC vs. Shettima: A Misplaced Blame Game in Labor Rights

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