Experts Urge Evidence-Based Energy Reforms as Nigeria’s Transition Debate Intensifies

By: Michael Mike

Energy policy experts have called for stronger data-driven decision making in Nigeria’s energy transition process, warning that ambitious climate targets must be balanced with economic realities, job security, and the country’s persistent energy access challenges.

The call was made during a national policy dialogue where researchers presented findings on the economic, environmental, and political implications of different energy transition pathways for Nigeria.

At the event, the Stakeholders Research Workshop on Supporting Just Transition in Nigeria, organized on Tuesday in Abuja by the Ministry of Environment and Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP), analysts said the study was designed to help guide policymaking by providing empirical insights into how various decarbonisation strategies could impact growth, employment, and emissions.

President of the Society for Planet and Prosperity, Professor Chukwumerije Okereke, said Nigeria’s existing commitments under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Energy Transition Plan (ETP) are ambitious but require stronger technical validation before full implementation.

He noted that current projections suggesting up to 85 percent adoption of electric vehicles by 2060 and large-scale solar electricity generation of about 150 gigawatts may be difficult to achieve under current infrastructure and investment conditions.

“Policy targets are not enough on their own,” Okereke said. “What matters is how these targets will be achieved and what the economic and social consequences will be.”

He added that the research explores multiple transition scenarios, including gas-centered development, renewable-focused expansion, and hybrid energy strategies combining both gas and renewable technologies.

According to him, a balanced transition pathway may be more realistic for Nigeria, allowing the country to gradually reduce emissions while still leveraging its vast natural gas resources to support industrial growth and electricity access.

Researchers also emphasized that Nigeria’s transition strategy must address energy poverty, noting that millions of households still lack reliable electricity supply. They said distributed renewable energy systems, particularly solar mini-grids, could play a crucial role in expanding electricity access to rural and underserved communities.

Energy economists involved in the study explained that their analysis combined energy modelling with macroeconomic projections to assess how different policy choices would influence GDP growth, employment creation, and carbon emissions.

Senior Research Fellow, ODI Global, Dr. Timothy Kelsall said the research does not attempt to predict future outcomes but instead evaluates possible consequences of policy decisions.

“We are not predicting the future,” Kelsall said. “We are showing policymakers what could happen under different scenarios so they can make informed decisions.”

He explained that the study models three major transition pathways — gas-focused transition, renewable-dominated transition, and hybrid energy development — noting that each pathway would create different economic and political impacts across sectors.

Analysts also stressed that energy transition policies must consider Nigeria’s political economy realities, as policy reforms often create winners and losers across industries and interest groups.

Experts warned that abrupt policy changes could trigger economic disruptions, particularly in regions and sectors heavily dependent on fossil fuel revenues. Instead, they recommended a gradual transition supported by investment incentives, industrial development policies, and workforce reskilling programs.

The research also examined the use of savings from fuel subsidy reforms, noting that simply removing subsidies without clear reinvestment strategies would not automatically translate into development gains.

Stakeholders said subsidy savings could be redirected toward renewable energy infrastructure, social protection programs, and industrial development initiatives that support economic diversification.

While Nigeria continues to depend heavily on oil and gas exports for foreign exchange earnings, analysts said diversification efforts remain critical for long-term economic stability.

However, they stressed that natural gas could play a transitional role in supporting electricity generation and industrial expansion while renewable energy capacity continues to grow.

Researchers urged stronger collaboration between government institutions, private sector investors, and civil society organisations to ensure successful implementation of transition policies.

As Nigeria navigates its climate and energy future, experts say the country must pursue a pragmatic energy strategy that balances environmental protection with economic growth and improved access to reliable electricity for its growing population.

Experts Urge Evidence-Based Energy Reforms as Nigeria’s Transition Debate Intensifies