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Niger’s Withdrawal from MNJTF: A Looming Security Catastrophe

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Niger’s Withdrawal from MNJTF: A Looming Security Catastrophe

By Zagazola Makama

As of March 30, 2025, Niger’s formal withdrawal from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) has sent shockwaves through the security landscape of the Lake Chad Basin, raising alarms over the potential for increased instability and violence in the region. This decision, orchestrated by Niger’s ruling junta, not only destabilizes the existing counterterrorism framework but also poses grave implications for Niger itself, alongside its neighbors, Nigeria and Chad.

Niger’s exit from the MNJTF has left a significant security vacuum, particularly along its northeastern border with Nigeria. The loss of Sector 4, previously secured by Nigerien forces, creates an urgent vulnerability that could enable insurgent groups to exploit the weakened defenses. The porous border has long been a weak link in counterinsurgency efforts, and without Niger’s military presence, Boko Haram and ISWAP may find fertile ground to establish new operational bases, smuggle arms, and launch cross-border assaults.

Military sources in Maiduguri have already indicated heightened risks for border towns like Damasak and Goskeru, which have historically been targets of Boko Haram incursions. The absence of Nigerien forces, who previously acted as a buffer, significantly escalates the threat level, making these areas prime targets for renewed terrorist activity.

The implications of Niger’s withdrawal extend beyond border security; it exacerbates internal military strains and economic challenges. The Nigerien military, already stretched thin, will now face increased pressure to manage security on its own territory while simultaneously combating rising insurgent threats. This scenario could lead to a diversion of resources away from critical internal security operations, leaving the nation vulnerable to insurgent resurgence.

Moreover, the economic ramifications of this withdrawal cannot be understated. As Niger grapples with the fallout from increased violence, the strain on its already fragile economy will intensify. Humanitarian crises may worsen as displaced persons flood into Niger from neighboring conflict zones, further burdening relief efforts and straining resources.

Chad, a key player in the MNJTF, now faces additional pressures as it grapples with Niger’s exit. The Chadian military, already engaged in combating insurgents along its western front, must now contend with increased threats from Boko Haram factions operating in the Lake Chad islands. The diversion of military resources to address these new challenges could expose vulnerabilities in Chad’s other security operations, potentially destabilizing the entire region.

The logistical and coordination challenges posed by Niger’s withdrawal cannot be overlooked. Chad’s reliance on cross-border military coordination with Niger for intelligence-sharing and troop movements is now compromised, complicating its counterterrorism efforts. As military planners in N’Djamena scramble to adapt, the risk of operational failures looms large.

Niger’s withdrawal from the MNJTF signals a broader geopolitical realignment in the Sahel, raising concerns about its potential pivot toward new security partnerships, particularly with Russia. The junta’s distancing from Western allies and expulsion of French forces may pave the way for closer military cooperation with Moscow. This shift could further complicate regional counterterrorism efforts, as Niger deepens ties with Russian-backed mercenary groups, mirroring trends seen in Mali and Burkina Faso.

Such a realignment could jeopardize existing intelligence sharing frameworks and counterterrorism coordination among Niger, Nigeria, and Chad. The specter of increased Russian influence in the region adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile security landscape.

A Call to Action: Urgent Measures Needed

In light of these developments, it is imperative for Niger and its neighbors to take swift and decisive action to mitigate the looming security crisis. The remaining MNJTF members Nigeria and Chad must urgently restructure their military strategies to address the vacuum left by Niger’s withdrawal. This includes redistributing troops to bolster border defenses, deploying advanced surveillance technologies, and enhancing diplomatic efforts to maintain intelligence-sharing channels. If possible fill in the vacuum left by Niger Republic.

Failure to act decisively could allow insurgents to capitalize on the disruption, leading to a resurgence of violence that threatens not only Niger but the entire Lake Chad Basin. Already there has been massive recruitment by JNIM and increase presence of Lakurawa within the Nigerien borders.

The stakes have never been higher, and the time for action is now. Without effective measures to counter the rising tide of insecurity, the region risks slipping into a state of chaos, reversing years of progress against Boko Haram and ISWAP.

Conclusion

Niger’s withdrawal from the MNJTF marks a critical juncture in the fight against terrorism in the Lake Chad Basin. The implications for Niger are profound, as the nation faces the dual challenges of securing its borders and managing internal stability amidst rising insurgent threats. As regional leaders grapple with these challenges, the urgency for a cohesive and collaborative response has never been more pressing. Failure to fill the void left by Niger’s exit could plunge the region into deeper insecurity, with devastating consequences for millions.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region

Niger’s Withdrawal from MNJTF: A Looming Security Catastrophe

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Troops arrest father and son suspected of terrorism in Sokoto forest, recover AK-47 rifle

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Troops arrest father and son suspected of terrorism in Sokoto forest, recover AK-47 rifle

By: Zagazola Makama

Troops of the Nigerian Army, supported by French Special Forces (SOF) and the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC), have arrested two suspected terrorists during an operation in Bauni Forest, Tangaza Local Government Area of Sokoto State.

Security sources said the operation was conducted at about 0047 hours on Nov. 11 by troops of 248 Battalion, supported by the French SOF and the NCTC Office of the National Security Adviser Tactical Team.

The suspects were identified as Umaru Ali, the son, and Muhammadu Ali, his father, both reportedly from the Bauni village area.
During the operation, the troops recovered one AK-47 rifle, one magazine containing three rounds of 7.62mm special ammunition, and ₦9,760 in cash.

Other items recovered included three motorcycle tubes.
The suspects were reportedly found with links to terrorist groups, although the nature and extent of their involvement are yet to be established.

They are currently in the custody of the 8 Military Intelligence Battalion (8 MIB) for further investigation.

Troops arrest father and son suspected of terrorism in Sokoto forest, recover AK-47 rifle

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Let Plateau breathe again: Governor Mutfwang confronts the painful truth about cattle rustling and violence

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Let Plateau breathe again: Governor Mutfwang confronts the painful truth about cattle rustling and violence

By: Zagazola Makama

There are moments in the life of a troubled society when the most important thing a leader can do is speak a truth that many people would rather avoid. Not because the truth is convenient, popular or politically safe, but because refusing to confront it only allows more innocent people to die.

Governor Caleb Mutfwang’s recent warning against cattle rustling in Plateau State is one of those moments. His words were direct, uncomfortable and deserving of serious reflection: “You cannot rustle cows and bring death upon us. We will not accept it.”

That statement deserves to be heard beyond the political arena. It deserves to be discussed in villages, churches, mosques, community meetings, security formations and homes where parents are increasingly afraid of what the next day may bring.

For years, Plateau has been trapped in a cycle of violence, suspicion, reprisals and competing narratives. Communities have buried their loved ones, farmers have lost their livelihoods, pastoralists have watched their cattle disappear or die, and families on all sides have been forced to live with grief that no government statement can adequately heal.

Yet one painful reality has often been pushed to the margins of public discussion, the destruction of livelihoods, particularly through cattle rustling and attacks on livestock, has always become a trigger for deadly retaliation and a wider cycle of violence.

This does not excuse the killing of farmers in his farmland, the murder of civilians, attacks on villages or any other atrocity. It does not justify collective punishment or the targeting of an ethnic or religious community. It simply means that cattle rustling, where it occurs, must be recognised and confronted as a serious security and criminal justice problem, rather than dismissed as an incidental issue in a conflict that has already taken too many lives.

The cattle economy and the human cost of criminality

Zagazola Media Network has, over time, reported incidents and patterns involving the theft, killing and disappearance of livestock in parts of Plateau State. Our reports have drawn on incident accounts, photographs, videos and other material supplied to us.
Our records indicate that the scale of livestock losses reported by affected communities is substantial.

The issue cannot be reduced to an ethnic contest. A cow is not merely an animal to the person who owns it. For many pastoral families, livestock represents years of labour, accumulated savings, food, school fees, marriage arrangements and the security of an entire household. Losing dozens of cattle can mean losing the economic foundation of a family overnight.

Imagine a family that has spent generations building a herd, only to wake up one morning and discover that its animals have been stolen, maliciously poisoned or killed. Imagine the anger, helplessness and desperation that follow.
Now imagine that the loss is followed by threats, attacks and killings.

Also imagine investing in a farmland, spending millions of Naira then one Fulani herder will just come enter your farm and destroy everything. Leaving you with little or nothing.

That is how criminality can feed a wider conflict. A stolen animal can become the beginning of a reprisal. A destruction of farmland can become another trigger for revenge attack and the reprisal will then become an attack on a settlement. What you will continue to see an hear is another funeral, another displacement and another generation raised on bitterness.

This is the dangerous chain that Plateau must break. No community should be made to pay for the crimes of individuals. No farmer should be killed because of his identity. No pastoralist should be dispossessed because of his ethnicity. No family should be forced to flee its ancestral home because armed men have decided that violence is a legitimate means of settling disputes. The law must protect everyone, and the law must punish everyone who violates it.

A conflict that has been dangerously misdiagnosed

One of the greatest obstacles to peace in Plateau has been the tendency to explain the crisis through a single narrative while ignoring evidence that complicates that narrative. For too long, sections of public discourse have framed the violence almost exclusively through religious identity, often presenting every incident as proof of a systematic religious war against Christians. Claims have circulated that at-least 10 churches were being attacked on a daily basis and that Christians were routinely being killed inside their places of worship. Infact they will tell you that in Nigeria Christians were killed for killed for wearing the Cross. These are bunch of lies being told to the international communities. And that is why the complex conflict cannot be understood by turning every incident into evidence for a predetermined religious conclusion.

Plateau’s crisis involves multiple layers: criminality, cattle rustling, land and resource disputes, historical grievances, communal distrust, armed groups, revenge attacks, weak accountability and political manipulation. These factors interact, sometimes in ways that are difficult to separate. To insist that only one community suffers, or that only one side commits crimes, is to deny the pain of other innocent people. It also creates a climate in which perpetrators can hide behind the identity of their victims.

The question should not be whether a victim is Berom, Mwaghavul, Fulani, Christian or Muslim. The question should be: who committed the crime, what evidence exists, and what must be done to prevent another killing? That is the foundation of justice which the government have ignored for a long timeZ

There is a dangerous belief in some quarters that attacking the economic livelihood of a rival community is a legitimate strategy for forcing that community out of an area. That belief is not a strategy for peace. It is a recipe for permanent conflict.

If cattle are stolen to impoverish pastoralists, the result is not justice for farmers. If farms are destroyed to punish pastoralists, the result is not security for farming communities. If villages are attacked to avenge the death of a relative, the result is not protection for the bereaved family.
It is the multiplication of suffering. The Fulani are not a single armed organisation. The Berom are not a single militia. The Mwaghavul are not collectively responsible for every criminal act committed in their areas. Every community contains innocent people whose greatest desire is to live, work, raise their children and enjoy the ordinary dignity of a peaceful society.

Criminals must not be allowed to speak in the name of entire communities. Those who steal cattle, those who kill farmers, those who organise attacks, those who provide weapons and those who finance violence must be treated as individuals answerable for their actions.
And this is why Governor Mutfwang’s warning matters. He has publicly acknowledged that cattle rustling is not a harmless or isolated activity. It can bring death and insecurity to the wider population.

His appeal must now be translated into action: investigate livestock theft, trace stolen animals, dismantle criminal markets, recover weapons and prosecute offenders without ethnic or political protection. In many cases the Fulani’s who destroyed farmlands were forced to pay compensations but hardly will any fulani be compensated for any attacks or stolen livestock by either the community or the Plateau state government. Though some were done secretly for political reasons.

Perhaps even more disturbing is the growing language of confrontation attributed to some actors on both sides of the conflict.
Reports of speeches at funerals and religious gatherings that encourage people to defend themselves through armed mobilisation, or appeals for money to acquire weapons, should alarm every responsible citizen.

A funeral should be a place to mourn the dead, comfort the bereaved and pray for peace. It should not become a recruitment ground for another round of violence.
A church, mosque or community gathering should be a place where people are reminded of the value of human life. Religious leaders who use their influence to glorify revenge, promote hatred or encourage armed confrontation are betraying the very moral responsibility entrusted to them.

There is a difference between calling for protection and encouraging vengeance.
Communities have a right to demand security. They have a right to report attacks, insist on investigations and ask the government to protect them. But no community has the right to organise unlawful armed groups, target civilians or punish innocent people for crimes they did not commit.
When young people are taught that revenge is honour, that another ethnic group is an enemy, or that the acquisition of weapons is the answer to insecurity, the future is being sacrificed to the anger of the present.

The young men being drawn into these cycles are not the only ones who will pay. Their mothers will cry. Their children will grow up without fathers. Their communities will lose productive hands. Their neighbours will become enemies.
And those who encouraged them from a safe distance will often be nowhere to be found when the bullets begin to fly.

Operation Rainbow must protect, not deepen the crisis

The Plateau State Government’s deployment of additional Operation Rainbow personnel is intended to strengthen community protection and restore confidence. That objective is important, particularly in communities that have endured repeated attacks. But every security arrangement must be governed by clear rules, professional discipline, effective supervision and accountability.

Operation Rainbow must not become a partisan instrument or an extension of the grievances of any community. Its personnel must protect civilians without discrimination, respond to threats impartially and hand suspects over for lawful investigation and prosecution.
Any allegation of abuse, complicity, unlawful detention, extortion, ethnic profiling or participation in violence must be investigated promptly.

A community-based security outfit can help build confidence if it is trusted by all communities. But if it is perceived as serving one side, it risks deepening the very divisions it was established to address. The same standard must apply to every security agency operating in Plateau. No uniform, political connection, religious identity or community affiliation should provide immunity for criminal conduct.

The governor’s warning that even security personnel or community members involved in cattle rustling would be pursued is particularly important. Security cannot be restored when those entrusted with protecting the people are suspected of participating in the criminal economy.

Zagazola and the uncomfortable duty of reporting

At Zagazola Media Network, we have tried to report these developments as they emerge, including incidents involving livestock theft, attacks on communities and the consequences of reprisal violence. We have published reports supported by photographs, videos and accounts from affected people. We understand that some of these reports have made certain individuals uncomfortable. We have been accused of speaking for the Fulani, labelled in different ways and criticised for drawing attention to incidents that some would prefer to remain outside public discussion. But journalism cannot be reduced to the obligation to protect one narrative.

Reporting the suffering of innocent Fulani pastoralists does not mean endorsing violence against farmers. Reporting the killing of Berom civilians does not mean supporting attacks on Fulani settlements. Reporting cattle rustling does not mean excusing murder or collective punishment.

Our position is simple: no innocent person should be killed, displaced, dispossessed or dehumanised because of who they are.
The responsibility of journalism is to document, question, verify and expose. It is not to manufacture enemies or provide propaganda for those who profit from division. We also recognise that allegations, however disturbing, must be tested against evidence. The seriousness of the Plateau crisis demands responsible reporting, not exaggeration, selective outrage or unverified claims.

The dangerous temptation to wait for foreign intervention

There are also those who have increasingly looked towards foreign governments, particularly the United States and Israel, as though an external power can resolve the deep-seated grievances and criminal networks operating within Plateau. International attention can be useful. It can encourage accountability, humanitarian support and diplomatic pressure where necessary. But no foreign government can build lasting peace in Plateau on behalf of its people.

No American politician can reconcile neighbours who refuse to speak to one another. No foreign military can permanently resolve a local cattle theft dispute. No international statement can replace the work of investigating a murder, recovering stolen livestock, prosecuting an armed criminal or rebuilding trust between communities.
Foreign governments will pursue their own interests. Their statements may change with domestic politics, elections and strategic calculations. The people who will remain in Plateau after the international headlines disappear are the people who live there today.
They will still have to share roads, markets, schools, farms, water sources and neighbourhoods.

That is why the solution must begin at home.
Plateau must reject the politics of victimhood when it is used to excuse violence. It must reject propaganda that turns every disagreement into a religious war. It must reject leaders and influencers who inflame tensions while ordinary people bear the consequences. The people must also demand accountability from their own political, traditional, religious and community leaders. Nobody should be above criticism simply because they speak the language of a particular group.

There is no moral authority in condemning violence committed by another community while justifying violence committed by one’s own.
A leader cannot demand justice for victims from one side and remain silent when innocent people from another side are killed. A religious figure cannot preach compassion in public while encouraging hatred behind closed doors. A politician cannot call for peace during the day and mobilise ethnic resentment at night.
The same moral standard must apply to everyone.

If a Fulani pastoralist destroys farmlands, he must face the law. If a Berom or Mwaghavul individual steals cattle, he must face the law. If a herder kills a farmer, he must be prosecuted. If a farmer or militia member kills a pastoralist, he must also be prosecuted.

If a security operative facilitates cattle rustling, that operative must be investigated and punished. If a community leader finances armed violence, that leader must not be shielded by influence or identity. Justice that is selective is not justice. It is another form of provocation.

The state must not allow any individual or organisation to turn the suffering of Plateau people into a business, a political advantage or a platform for personal recognition.
The people who profit from the conflict are not necessarily the people who bury the dead.

Plateau is approaching a dangerous crossroad

The warning signs should not be ignored.
When communities begin to see one another as permanent enemies, when young people are mobilised around ethnic and religious hostility, when funerals become platforms for threats, when weapons are celebrated as symbols of courage and when every attack is answered with another attack, a state begins to lose the social foundations that hold it together. Plateau must not be allowed to become another prolonged theatre of war.

The North-East has shown Nigeria the terrible cost of allowing armed extremism, revenge, criminal economies and communal distrust to take root. Generations have been affected. Families have been displaced. Towns and villages have been destroyed. Enormous public resources have been spent trying to restore what violence took away.

Plateau still has an opportunity to prevent such a future. But that opportunity will disappear if those who preach hatred are allowed to dominate the public conversation. The state needs security operations, but it also needs justice. It needs arrests, but it also needs credible prosecutions. It needs community protection, but it also needs reconciliation. It needs political leadership, but it equally needs citizens who refuse to be manipulated. Above all, it needs an end to the criminal activities that keep supplying fresh reasons for retaliation.

Let Plateau breathe again

Governor Mutfwang’s words should become a standard against which every political leader, community leader, security operative, religious figure and citizen is judged.
When he says, “You cannot rustle cows and bring death upon us,” he is speaking to a reality that can no longer be ignored. But the message must go further.

You cannot kill a farmer and expect peace. You cannot steal a pastoralist’s cattle and expect him to feel secure. You cannot burn a home and expect its occupants to forget. You cannot murder innocent people and hide behind religion. You cannot encourage young men to take up arms and then pretend to be shocked when they return in body bags. You cannot demand justice for your own people while denying it to your neighbours.

Plateau does not belong to one ethnic group, one religion or one political interest. It belongs to all its people. Its future cannot be built by pushing one community out, impoverishing another or silencing those who have lost loved ones.

The farmer must be able to return to his farm without fear. The pastoralist must be able to move and protect his lawful livelihood without fear. Children must attend school without hearing gunshots. Traders must travel without being kidnapped. Families must sleep without wondering whose home will be attacked before dawn.

That is not too much to ask. It is the minimum obligation of a functioning society.
The people of Plateau must now make a choice: allow the merchants of hatred to determine their future, or reject them and reclaim their state.
Let the stolen cattle be recovered. Let the killers be arrested. Let the weapons be taken out of circulation. Let those who finance violence be exposed. Let every victim receive justice, regardless of identity. Let religious and traditional leaders become voices of restraint. Let security agencies protect all communities without fear or favour. And let the people stop rewarding those who turn their pain into propaganda.

The dead cannot return. But the living can still be saved.

Plateau has buried enough people. Its villages have endured enough fear. Its children have inherited enough bitterness. The next generation deserves something better than a conflict whose causes are repeatedly denied, manipulated or exploited. Let Plateau breathe again. Let its people choose life over revenge, justice over impunity, truth over propaganda and peace over the politics of endless bloodshed.

Zagazola is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analysts in the Lake Chad Region

Let Plateau breathe again: Governor Mutfwang confronts the painful truth about cattle rustling and violence

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Nigerian military precision strikes neutralise 19 terrorists in Ngala, Borno

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Nigerian military precision strikes neutralise 19 terrorists in Ngala, Borno

By: Zagazola Makama

The Nigerian military has neutralised at least 15 suspected terrorists in a series of precision airstrikes targeting insurgent positions around Bulabulutube in Ngala Local Government Area of Borno State.

Security sources said the strikes were conducted at about 7:56 p.m. on Nov. 8, following aerial surveillance that identified approximately 30 terrorist fighters gathered under a tree in the area.

The military aircraft subsequently carried out a precision strike on the identified target.

Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) indicated that about 15 terrorists were neutralised, while parts of a nearby building were destroyed.

The aircraft subsequently tracked another group of five fleeing terrorists who had taken cover under a tree and conducted a second precision strike.

The assessment revealed that about four additional terrorists were neutralised, while a secondary explosion was observed, suggesting the possible destruction of explosive materials or other military supplies.

In a related operation, the aircraft proceeded towards the Lake Chad area following intelligence on a suspected terrorist logistics structure located at a crossing point.

A further precision strike was conducted on the structure, which was assessed to have been completely destroyed, with no subsequent movement observed around the location.

The successive strikes represent another significant blow to terrorist formations and logistics networks operating within the Lake Chad axis.

The military continues to sustain intelligence-led aerial surveillance and precision operations aimed at degrading terrorist capabilities, disrupting their supply networks and denying insurgents safe havens across the North-East.

Nigerian military precision strikes neutralise 19 terrorists in Ngala, Borno

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