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NOW THAT GUBIO HAS EMERGED: A lessom in Continuity and Control.

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NOW THAT GUBIO HAS EMERGED: A lessom in Continuity and Control.

By: Inuwa Bwala
inuwabwala3@gmail.com.

The emergence of Engineer Mustapha Gubio as the All Progressives Congress consensus governorship candidate for Borno State for the 2027 elections has reignited debate over succession politics in the North East.

The process contrasts sharply with the 2018 pathway that produced Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, as this one reveals how APC’s internal dynamics in Borno have evolved from competitive primaries to a craftily managed consensus.

In 2018 it was a heavily contested primary election, under the tutelage of the then Governor, Kashim Shettima: now Nigeria’s Vice President.

Professor Babagana Zulum, then Commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement, RRR, entered a field of 10 aspirants. He polled 4,432 votes to defeat his closest rival, Idris Mamman Durkwa, who managed 115 votes.

The contest was open, yet reflected the party’s early attempt to manage a crowded field while preserving the “Borno Model” of Shettima-Zulum continuity. Zulum went on to win the general election with 1,175,440 votes, and secured a second term unopposed in the 2022 APC primary. His rise was built on technocratic credentials as a professor of agricultural engineering, visibility in post-insurgency reconstruction, and the then governor’s backing.

Engineer Gubio’s 2026 emergence, which has been ratified with the affirmation of the consensus over contest
has seemingly changed the the script. Engineer Mustapha Gubio, who untill recently Professor Zulum’s Commissioner for Works and Housing, was presented by the governor as the APC consensus candidate for 2027. The announcement followed the purchase of nomination forms worth N50m and a presentation to Vice President Kashim Shettima at the Presidential Villa.

Zulum described the choice as the product of “extensive consultations” and a “unified position” within the party. His media aide went further to clarify, that, it was an “anointment,” not a formal endorsement, but the effect was the same: other aspirants, including Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan, stepped down to preserve party unity. The move was endorsed by APC Borno Stakeholders, who cited Gubio’s “experience and long-standing interaction with people of diverse religions, cultures, and tribes”.
Many described it as two paths, with one objective.

The contrast is instructive, as Zulum’s emergence in 2018 was a test of internal competition within a party still consolidating after the 2015 merger. It produced a clear winner through votes. Gubio’s path in 2026 bypassed that process entirely, relying instead on elite consensus brokered by the governor, with VP Shettima’s public blessing.

Analysts say the shift reflects Borno APC’s confidence in its dominance and its desire to avoid rancorous primaries ahead of a national election. “In Borno, the governor usually holds the local keys, but the Vice President holds the national map,” a party chieftain once said.

The arrangement also signals Zulum’s attempt to institutionalize a political culture, that differs with the old order, which were always turbulent.
Like many others, it is to me a seamless continuity between two men who share technocratic backgrounds and close ties to powers that be.

Professor Zulum was a professor and Rector before entering politics; while Gubio oversaw infrastructure delivery as Commissioner for Works. The emphasis on continuity, stability, and administrative competence is consistent with the government’s 25 years rolling development plan.

While some may argue that, the consensus model carries risks, to me in particular, it reduces intra-party rivalry and attendant post primary enemity, leaving no room for perceptions of manipulation of the process.
But even this, it tests the durability of the Zulum-Shettima alliance, which has been central to Borno’s political stability since 2015.

For now, APC leaders insist the decision is about unity. Whether it delivers electoral victory in 2027 will depend less on how Gubio emerged, and more on whether he can match Zulum’s public appeal and the party’s track record of delivering Borno to APC in every election since 2015.

It is no longer a question of if, but when Engineer Mustapha Gubio wins the Borno governorship in 2027, the public expectations are naturally high, but may largely be shaped by three things: Professor Babagana Umara Zulum’s legacy, the security situation, and Borno’s development needs.

Already, people are talking about, Sustaining and scaling up security gains.
It is no longer news that. Borno has made progress against Boko Haram/ISWAP, but communities like Gwoza, Chibok, Pulka, Kirawa, Wala and the Lake Chad areas still face periodic attacks with attendant food raids.

The public expects Engineer Gubio to continue Working closely with the military and federal government to secure rural communities and farmlands.
The public also expect him to work towards preventing a resurgence of insurgent recruitment driven by hunger and displacement.

There will be much expectations for him to also continue the “civilian-military” approach, which Governor Zulum used, by visiting frontline communities, supporting vigilantes, and pushing for resettlement.
Recent reports indicate that there may be dare food shortages and Gubio is expected to fix food security and humanitarian gaps.

The IDP crisis is still acute attendant upon the suspension of WFP aid since January 2026, this has further worsened hunger in camps and host communities, and people expect the next governor to push for the return of sustained food aid and livelihood programs, revive agriculture by making farmlands accessible and providing inputs, irrigation, and extension services, to avoid a situation where IDPs return to the bush because the conditions in camps are worse.

Like Zulum, Mustapha Gubio is also likely to deliver infrastructure and reconstruction, coming from the Works and Housing portfolio. There are very high expectations that, he will maintain Zulum’s pace on roads, schools, hospitals, and housing.

I am amongst those who rrmain confident that, he will complete resettlement projects for IDPs to return home with dignity, expand rural roads to open up agriculture and trade, improve electricity and water supply in Maiduguri and satellite towns and maintain Zulum’s “people-first” governance style.
I dare say, that Zulum built his reputation on unannounced visits, direct engagement with citizens, and quick responses to crises.
Borno residents expect Gubio to be visible, accessible, and tough on corruption and inefficiency. Anything less will be seen as a step back.

As a party man, I have seen the merits in managing party unity and succession politics, using the consensus arrangement, that produced Gubio as a model for future primary elections and will reduce rancour and unnecessary financial involvement. And I will not hesitate in recommending same to Engineer Gubio.

I know as a matter of fact, that the public expects him to govern for the whole state, not just as a placeholder, and to avoid alienating other power blocs in Borno politics. This has been the bane of many politicians in other climes.

The bottom line for Engineer Mustapha Gubio, is that, voters in Borno will judge Gubio and of course all those who may come on board to work with him by, whether he or they can keep the state safe, feed the people, and keep reconstruction moving without breaking the trust Zulum built with the masses.

If he’s seen as “Zulum 2.0” on service delivery but with his own approach to security and economy, expectations are that APC will hold Borno in 2027 and beyond.
With Gubio’s emergence and consequent affirmation, Borno looks set for another journey, remeniscient of the Zulum era. May God grant him good health, wisdom and understanding to tower above the public expectations.

inuwabwala3@gmail.com.

NOW THAT GUBIO HAS EMERGED: A lessom in Continuity and Control.

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The Blood We Have Normalised

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The Blood We Have Normalised

By U.K. Umar

It happens in many parts of Nigeria, particularly across the North-West and North-Central, but I write this from the perspective of someone who has spent considerable time on the frontlines in Plateau and Benue States. I have walked through communities still smelling of burnt homes. I have spoken with soldiers who had barely returned from operations before heading out again. I have sat with grieving families whose only crime was waking up on the wrong side of an endless cycle of violence. The stories differ only in names and locations. The pain is identical.

Almost every week, another community buries its dead. Men, women and children are killed in attacks and reprisal attacks, many hacked to death in ways that defy human conscience. Yet the official response has become painfully predictable. Government condemns the killings. Officials promise that perpetrators will be brought to justice. Security agencies launch investigations. Then everyone waits until the next massacre. We have repeated this script for years while the cemeteries continue to expand.

What worries me even more is that much of the country seems to have adjusted to this reality. It is as though the killings in Plateau, Benue, Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto or parts of Kebbi have become distant headlines rather than a national emergency. But all is not well with Nigeria. Not even close. A nation that becomes comfortable with burying dozens of its citizens every other week is a nation slowly losing its collective humanity.

In the past few weeks alone, we have witnessed renewed violence around the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS) in Kuru, Plateau State. Security forces have had to repel repeated attacks targeting one of the country’s foremost strategic institutions. Before that came attacks around Vom, deadly assaults on security personnel, and fresh recoveries of military weapons stolen from fallen soldiers. Across the border in Benue State, communities continue to count their dead after successive attacks, with entire settlements displaced and livelihoods destroyed. These are not isolated incidents. They are symptoms of a much deeper crisis.

Having recently visited military formations in both Plateau and Benue States, one truth became impossible to ignore. The Nigerian Armed Forces are carrying a burden that no military alone can solve. I met exhausted officers and soldiers who spend weeks away from their families, operating under difficult terrain and enormous psychological pressure. Many have paid the ultimate price. Others continue to fight despite losing colleagues in brutal ambushes. Their sacrifices deserve recognition, not constant vilification.

But another truth also confronted me.

In community after community, I found fear. I found anger. I found suspicion. Most painfully, I found a hatred that has become deeply entrenched between many indigenous farming communities and Fulani pastoralists. It is a hatred born from years of killings, displacement, cattle rustling, destruction of farms, revenge attacks and mutual distrust. Both sides have suffered losses that cannot simply be measured in statistics. Every family seems to have a story of someone murdered, displaced or permanently scarred.

That reality makes peace infinitely harder.

When grief is inherited from one generation to another, revenge begins to masquerade as justice. Every fresh attack becomes justification for another reprisal. Every funeral plants the seeds for another burial.

This is why simplistic narratives do not help.

Reducing the crisis to farmers versus herders, Christians versus Muslims, or indigenes versus settlers ignores the complex web of criminality, historical grievances and political failures that sustain the violence. Criminals exploit genuine community fears. Communities, in turn, increasingly shield criminals whom they perceive as protectors of their own people.

Perhaps one of my biggest observations from these visits is the alarming proliferation of arms in civilian hands. There are simply too many sophisticated weapons circulating among non-state actors. These weapons are not manufactured in villages. They arrive through organised trafficking networks and remain hidden within communities.

Unfortunately, many community members know who possesses these arms. They know who participates in attacks. They know who provides logistics and intelligence. Yet they remain silent, often out of fear, ethnic loyalty or expectation of future retaliation. That silence has become one of the greatest obstacles confronting security agencies.

No intelligence operation can succeed where communities refuse to cooperate.

Equally disturbing is the conduct of some political and community leaders whose public utterances sometimes amount to subtle calls to arms. In moments that demand restraint, they choose inflammatory rhetoric. They cast security forces as enemies rather than partners. They reinforce ethnic victimhood while carefully avoiding any condemnation of criminals operating within their own constituencies.

Words matter.

Every careless speech delivered from a podium has consequences in villages where emotions already run dangerously high. Every attempt to delegitimise the military without evidence weakens public confidence and emboldens armed groups.

This is not to suggest that the Armed Forces are infallible. Like every human institution, mistakes occur. Allegations of misconduct should always be investigated transparently and professionally. But there is an important distinction between demanding accountability and deliberately undermining the very institution standing between communities and complete anarchy.

The military can only do so much.

The larger solution sits on the tables of elected leaders—from the President to state governors and local government authorities. They alone possess the constitutional powers to drive coordinated political, economic and social interventions capable of addressing the roots of these conflicts.

Security operations must continue with greater intelligence support and improved inter-agency coordination. But security alone cannot heal communities where trust has collapsed.

Justice must be impartial.

Compensation must not depend on ethnicity.

Prosecution must not depend on political convenience.

Victims deserve equal recognition regardless of whether they are farmers or herders, Christians or Muslims, indigenes or settlers.

Government must reward those who choose peace and punish those who profit from violence without fear or favour. Anything less simply reinforces the perception that violence works.

The country also needs an aggressive programme for arms recovery, community reconciliation, youth engagement and economic revitalisation in the affected areas. Entire generations are growing up knowing nothing except conflict. That should frighten every Nigerian.

Nigeria cannot continue to normalise mass burials.

We cannot continue issuing statements while villages disappear.

We cannot continue allowing children to inherit hatred as though it were family property.

The bloodshed in Plateau and Benue is not just their tragedy. It is Nigeria’s tragedy.

History will not judge us by the number of condolence messages we issued. It will judge us by whether we found the courage to stop the killing while there was still a country united enough to save.

The Blood We Have Normalised

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Building a Developmental State: What Nigeria Can Learn from China’s Revolutionary Journey

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Building a Developmental State: What Nigeria Can Learn from China’s Revolutionary Journey

By Raymond Na’anlep Delmut

Dongfang Scholar, Peking University, China
Nigerian Diplomat, Policy Analyst, and Author

Development is often measured by economic statistics, towering skylines, high-speed railways, and technological breakthroughs. Yet beneath every enduring national transformation lies something far more fundamental, strong institutions, visionary leadership, disciplined governance, and a society united around a long-term national purpose. These are the enduring lessons that emerge from China’s revolutionary history and modernization journey, lessons that hold particular relevance for Nigeria as it seeks to strengthen its institutions and accelerate national development.

Much of the global conversation on China’s rise begins with the economic reforms introduced in 1978. While those reforms undoubtedly transformed the country into one of the world’s leading economic powers, they tell only part of the story. China’s remarkable achievements were built upon institutional foundations laid decades earlier during one of the most difficult periods in its history. The experiences of the Chinese Soviet Republic, the Long March, and the revolutionary base at Yan’an created a culture of resilience, organizational discipline, strategic planning, and leadership development that would later underpin one of history’s most remarkable modernization projects.

During the PKU Dongfang Scholars Programme at Peking University, scholars from across Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East examined this historical evolution through lectures, policy dialogues, field visits, and engagements with academics and government institutions. One lesson consistently emerged: sustainable development is rarely accidental. It is built patiently through institutions capable of surviving political transitions, adapting to changing realities, and maintaining a consistent national vision.

China’s transformation illustrates that modernization begins long before economic growth becomes visible. The revolutionary administration established in Jiangxi during the early 1930s experimented with governance despite extreme resource constraints. It developed systems of local administration, public health, taxation, education, agricultural management, and judicial administration while confronting military pressure and political uncertainty. When circumstances forced the revolutionary leadership to embark on the Long March, these institutions were not abandoned. Instead, they were preserved, refined, and strengthened.

The Long March itself has become a symbol not simply of endurance but of institutional survival. It demonstrated the importance of preserving leadership, protecting organizational knowledge, and adapting strategy to changing realities. The subsequent establishment of the revolutionary base at Yan’an transformed the movement into a centre of political education, leadership training, policy experimentation, and governance innovation. Many of the principles later associated with China’s modernization including merit-based leadership development, long-term planning, organizational discipline, and continuous policy learning were cultivated during this formative period.

Nigeria’s own historical trajectory has been markedly different. Since independence in 1960, the country has demonstrated enormous resilience despite periods of political instability, civil conflict, constitutional transitions, and changing development priorities. As Africa’s most populous nation and one of its largest economies, Nigeria possesses exceptional human capital, abundant natural resources, entrepreneurial dynamism, and considerable regional influence. Yet these strengths have not consistently translated into sustained institutional effectiveness or broad-based economic transformation.

The comparison between Nigeria and China is not intended to suggest institutional imitation. The two countries differ profoundly in their political systems, historical experiences, constitutional structures, and social realities. Rather, the value of comparison lies in identifying transferable principles that can strengthen governance within Nigeria’s democratic and federal framework.

Perhaps the most significant lesson concerns long-term strategic planning. China’s successive Five-Year Plans have provided continuity across generations of leadership while remaining aligned with broader national development objectives extending several decades into the future. In contrast, Nigeria has produced numerous ambitious development plans, many of which have been weakened by inconsistent implementation, shifting political priorities, and institutional discontinuity. Development becomes more sustainable when national priorities remain consistent regardless of changes in political leadership.

Leadership development represents another important lesson. China has invested systematically in preparing public officials through specialized institutions dedicated to continuous education, strategic planning, and governance. Nigeria already possesses respected institutions such as the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies, the Public Service Institute of Nigeria, the Foreign Service Academy, the National Defence College, and the Administrative Staff College of Nigeria. The challenge is not institutional absence but ensuring that leadership development becomes a continuous, merit-based process fully integrated into national governance.

Equally important is the role of institutional discipline. China’s experience demonstrates that effective governance depends upon accountability, performance evaluation, ethical public service, and administrative coordination. Nigeria has established important institutions to promote transparency and combat corruption, including the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission, and the Code of Conduct Bureau. Continued reforms aimed at strengthening coordination, consistency, and public confidence will remain central to building a more effective state.

Infrastructure also emerges as more than an economic asset. China’s investments in transport networks, logistics corridors, industrial parks, and digital infrastructure have served not only economic purposes but also strengthened national integration and state capacity. Nigeria’s continued investment in roads, railways, ports, power, and digital connectivity can similarly contribute to economic growth while reinforcing national cohesion.

Perhaps the most enduring lesson concerns human capital. China’s sustained investment in education, science, technology, engineering, research, and innovation has enabled its transition from labour-intensive manufacturing to a knowledge-driven economy. Nigeria’s greatest strategic resource is not oil, gas, or minerals, but its youthful population. Unlocking that potential will require substantial and sustained investment in education, technical skills, research, entrepreneurship, and digital innovation.

China’s modernization also illustrates the importance of national purpose. Throughout its developmental journey, public institutions have remained broadly aligned around shared national objectives. While democratic societies naturally accommodate political competition and ideological diversity, development itself need not become a partisan issue. Nigeria’s political parties may legitimately differ in policy preferences and governing philosophies, yet education, infrastructure, industrialization, food security, healthcare, technological advancement, and youth development should remain enduring national priorities.

The broader significance of China’s experience extends beyond economics. It demonstrates that modernization is fundamentally a process of building capable institutions, cultivating effective leadership, maintaining policy continuity, and investing in people. These principles are not exclusive to any political ideology. They represent universal foundations of successful state-building.

For Nigeria, the path forward lies not in copying another country’s model but in adapting proven governance principles to its own constitutional, democratic, and cultural realities. The country’s diversity, entrepreneurial energy, diplomatic influence, and youthful population provide immense opportunities for transformation. What remains essential is the sustained commitment to strengthening institutions, promoting accountability, investing in human capital, and maintaining a long-term national development vision.

History reminds us that great nations are rarely built within a single political administration. They are constructed patiently through generations of disciplined leadership, institutional learning, and collective national purpose. China’s revolutionary journey illustrates how resilience, strategic planning, and organizational discipline can eventually produce remarkable modernization. Nigeria possesses the human and material resources to achieve comparable national transformation through its own democratic path.

The future of Nigeria will ultimately depend not on the abundance of its resources but on the strength of its institutions, the quality of its leadership, and the willingness of its citizens to place long-term national development above short-term political interests. The challenge before Nigeria is therefore not simply economic; it is institutional. Building a developmental state begins with building institutions capable of sustaining national progress for generations to come.

Raymond Na’anlep Delmut
is a Nigerian diplomat, policy analyst, Dongfang Scholar Peking University, and author of several books. His research focuses on diplomacy, governance, leadership, modernization, development policy, comparative public administration, and South–South cooperation.

Building a Developmental State: What Nigeria Can Learn from China’s Revolutionary Journey

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Africa and France: From Colonial Shadows to a Partnership of Equals

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Africa and France: From Colonial Shadows to a Partnership of Equals

By: Michael Mike

French Emmanuel Macron and Kenyan William Ruto, recently cohosted the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi, with the intention of rebuilding relations between France and African countries. Present were many African leaders, Michael Olukayode in this report tries to place what the meeting means to France and Africa, now and in the future

For more than six decades after formal decolonisation, relations between France and Africa have remained among the most complex, controversial and strategically important international relationships in the world. What began as a colonial enterprise evolved into political alliances, military partnerships, economic dependence, cultural exchanges and, increasingly in recent years, bitter disputes over sovereignty and influence.

Today, however, that relationship appears to be entering another turning point.

At the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi, Kenya, co-hosted by Emmanuel Macron and William Ruto, African and European leaders attempted to redefine the future of Africa-France relations around the language of equality, co-investment, sovereignty and shared prosperity.

The summit was historically symbolic. For the first time, the traditional Africa-France summit was held in a major Anglophone African country rather than a Francophone former French colony. That alone reflected a deliberate shift in France’s African policy.

But beneath the optimistic language of partnership lies a deeper historical question: can France truly build a new relationship with Africa without confronting the enduring legacies of “Françafrique”?

The Burden of History

France’s relationship with Africa cannot be understood without examining colonialism and the post-independence system that followed it.

Following the independence movements of the 1950s and 1960s, France retained enormous political, military and economic influence over many of its former colonies in West and Central Africa. Through military agreements, monetary arrangements such as the CFA franc, strategic resource control, and elite political networks, Paris maintained what became known as “Françafrique” — an informal system of influence that critics described as neo-colonial.

For decades, France intervened militarily in African states, supported friendly governments, influenced political transitions and protected economic interests. French companies dominated sectors ranging from oil and mining to telecommunications and infrastructure.

To many Africans, particularly younger generations, the relationship increasingly appeared unequal. France was often seen not as a partner but as a guardian of old structures that preserved dependency.

Anti-French sentiment grew sharply across parts of West Africa in recent years, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, where military juntas expelled French troops and questioned France’s long-standing role in regional security.

This changing political mood explains why the Nairobi summit represented more than diplomacy; it was an attempt at political reinvention.

Macron’s Attempt to Redefine France-Africa Relations

President Macron openly acknowledged during the summit that France’s traditional approach to Africa had become unsustainable.

“For too long,” he admitted, “too many people… saw Africa as their back yard. That is over.”

That statement was perhaps one of the most candid acknowledgements ever made by a French president regarding France’s historical posture toward Africa.

Macron’s speeches in Nairobi repeatedly emphasized that Africa no longer wants charity, paternalism or lectures from Europe.

“The African continent does not want us to come along with aid,” he declared. “People in Africa want us to come and invest.”

Throughout the summit, Macron framed the future relationship around four key concepts:

  • equality;
  • co-investment;
  • sovereignty;
  • and mutual strategic interest.

He argued that Europe’s own future prosperity and strategic autonomy are increasingly tied to Africa’s success.

“Supporting your success is a condition of our success,” he said.

This language marked a sharp departure from older diplomatic frameworks in which Africa was often treated primarily as a recipient of aid, humanitarian assistance or security intervention.

Instead, Macron repeatedly described Africa as:

  • “the continent of the present,”
  • a hub of innovation,
  • and a critical partner in technology, energy, industrialisation and artificial intelligence.

The summit also produced concrete economic announcements, including €23 billion in investment pledges for Africa — €14 billion from French firms and €9 billion from African investors.

Why Africa Is No Longer Waiting for Europe

France’s changing tone is not occurring in a vacuum. Africa itself has changed dramatically.

The continent is now the youngest in the world, increasingly urbanised and technologically connected. African governments are diversifying partnerships with China, Turkey, India, Gulf states and Russia. No single external power dominates Africa today.

China’s rise, especially, transformed Africa’s diplomatic landscape. Chinese investment in infrastructure, mining, manufacturing and telecommunications altered the balance of influence that France and other European powers once enjoyed.

Macron himself acknowledged this shift in Nairobi, noting that China, Turkey and the United States had become stronger competitors in Africa because they were often perceived as more commercially aggressive and competitive.

At the same time, African leaders are becoming more assertive in demanding reforms in global governance, financing and trade systems.

This was strongly reflected in the intervention of Bola Tinubu at the summit.

Tinubu’s Intervention: Africa Wants Fairness, Not Charity

President Tinubu’s contribution in Nairobi reflected a broader African frustration with the global economic system.

He argued that Africa’s industrialisation and development are being constrained by unfair financial structures, punitive borrowing costs and weak investment mechanisms.

Tinubu warned that African countries are treated as permanently “high risk” economies, making access to affordable finance extremely difficult.

According to Reuters, Tinubu noted that Nigeria alone is projected to spend $11.6 billion on debt servicing in 2026 — almost half of government revenue.

His intervention aligned closely with the themes raised by Macron and Ruto:

  • reform of the global financial architecture;
  • support for industrialisation;
  • and stronger African economic integration.

Tinubu stressed that Africa must move beyond exporting raw materials toward value-added manufacturing and regional industrialisation.

That position echoed Macron’s own argument that Africa should no longer merely export raw minerals and commodities while industrial processing happens elsewhere.

Tinubu also highlighted Nigeria’s maritime ambitions and offered the country’s Deep Blue maritime security project as a regional platform for Gulf of Guinea cooperation.

His broader message was significant: Africa is not asking for sympathy; it is demanding fair participation in the global economy.

That marks a major philosophical shift in Africa’s international diplomacy.

The Central Contradiction: Trust

Despite the optimistic rhetoric in Nairobi, the future of France-Africa relations still faces a fundamental challenge: trust.

Many Africans remain skeptical of France’s intentions.

Online discussions during the summit revealed continuing suspicion about whether France’s new strategy is genuinely different from older patterns of influence. Some commentators accused France of merely shifting its focus from hostile Francophone countries toward more receptive Anglophone states such as Kenya.

Others questioned whether investment-led engagement could simply become a new form of economic dependency rather than genuine partnership.

These concerns are not baseless.

True partnership requires more than speeches and investment announcements. It requires structural change.

Africa’s future relationship with France — and indeed with Europe generally — must therefore be built on several principles.

What the Future Relationship Should Look Like

  1. From Extraction to Industrialisation

Africa can no longer remain primarily an exporter of raw materials.

The continent possesses critical minerals essential for global energy transition, digital technology and manufacturing. Yet much of the value addition still occurs outside Africa.

Future France-Africa relations should focus on:

  • local manufacturing;
  • industrial parks;
  • technology transfer;
  • and African ownership within supply chains.

Macron acknowledged this reality directly when he said Africa should not merely be “where raw materials… are extracted but also where processing occurs.”

That is perhaps the most important economic issue of the next generation.

  1. Financial Justice and Investment Reform

African countries continue to face disproportionately high borrowing costs despite their enormous growth potential.

Tinubu’s call for financial reform highlighted the urgency of this issue.

If France truly wants a new partnership with Africa, it must support:

  • fairer sovereign risk assessments;
  • lower financing barriers;
  • stronger development banks;
  • and African-led financial institutions.

Macron’s support for strengthening the Nairobi-based ATIDI guarantee mechanism may represent one step in that direction.

  1. Respect for Sovereignty

Military interventions and political interference severely damaged France’s image in Africa.

Future relations must be grounded in non-interference, mutual respect and African leadership in security matters.

The Nairobi Declaration strongly emphasized that Africans must remain the principal actors in resolving African conflicts.

That principle is critical.

  1. Youth, Technology and Human Capital

Africa’s greatest resource is not oil, gold or lithium — it is its people.

The summit repeatedly focused on youth, innovation, digital technology, AI, sports and creative industries because both African and European leaders recognize that the continent’s demographic strength could become a global economic engine.

France’s future role should therefore prioritize:

  • education partnerships;
  • research collaboration;
  • digital infrastructure;
  • entrepreneurship financing;
  • and mobility for African students and professionals.
  1. A Relationship Beyond Colonial Memory

History cannot be erased, but it does not have to permanently imprison the future.

France must continue confronting difficult aspects of colonial history honestly, while African governments must also engage pragmatically with new opportunities.

The future cannot be built entirely on resentment, nor can it be built on denial.

What Africa increasingly demands is dignity, reciprocity and respect.

A Defining Transition

The Africa Forward Summit may ultimately be remembered as the moment when France publicly accepted that the old order in Africa had ended.

Macron himself acknowledged this transformation:
“That is over.”

But declarations alone will not redefine the relationship.

The real test will lie in whether:

  • investments become genuine partnerships;
  • financing becomes fairer;
  • African industries become stronger;
  • and sovereignty becomes respected in practice rather than rhetoric.

Africa today is no longer a passive actor in global affairs. It is increasingly confident, assertive and strategic.

France can either adapt to this new Africa as an equal partner — or continue losing influence to countries that understand the changing realities more quickly.

The future of France-Africa relations will therefore not be determined in Paris alone.

It will increasingly be shaped in Nairobi, Abuja, Kigali, Lagos, Dakar, Johannesburg and across a continent that is no longer waiting to be spoken for.

Africa and France: From Colonial Shadows to a Partnership of Equals

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