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After Tillabéri, Is Niamey the Next Target?

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After Tillabéri, Is Niamey the Next Target?

By: Zagazola Makama

As the security situation deteriorates in the embattled Tillabéri region of western Niger, fears are mounting that the country’s capital, Niamey, could become the next objective in a carefully coordinated offensive by jihadist groups.

What began as isolated attacks by armed terrorist groups (GATs) has now evolved into a structured campaign of territorial encirclement and economic suffocation. Once a resilient region, Tillabéri is now encircled by extremists who operate with impunity. Key towns such as Wanzarbé, Bankilaré, Kokourou, Ayorou, Makalondi, and Tamou have reportedly fallen under effective blockade, with roads cut off, markets paralyzed, and residents living under de facto insurgent control.

This shift from random insurgency to a strategic offensive raises alarm bells about the potential for a broader assault on Niamey, the political and military nerve center of Niger.

Groups such as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS/EIGS) and the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) have adopted deliberate tactics to isolate strategic zones, weaken state presence, and create power vacuums. Analysts suggest that this methodical advance is setting the stage for a possible assault on Niamey.

“Their objective is no longer just military it’s psychological and political,” says a Sahel-based security expert who spoke to Zagazola Makama on the condition of anonymity. “They want to collapse the state from the outer provinces inward, sowing fear, discrediting the armed forces, and projecting power.”

Amid this deteriorating situation, the Nigerien Army’s response has been notably muted. Despite mounting pressure from local communities, there has been little visible counter-offensive. Observers question why the military appears paralyzed while villages fall, trade routes close, and militants entrench themselves deeper.

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, had previously pledged to deploy a joint 5,000 man force to confront the growing threat. However, weeks later, there is no visible deployment, and coordination appears fractured. Military insiders cite low morale, unclear command structures, and growing disillusionment with military leadership, which is perceived to prioritize political office over battlefield engagement. “The foot soldiers are angry, and many feel betrayed,” says a retired officer based in Niamey.

The humanitarian situation in Tillabéri is dire. With routes severed and aid agencies unable to reach besieged populations, tens of thousands are at risk of famine, displacement, and forced recruitment by insurgents. Local sources report that GATs now enforce their own laws, regulate movements, and impose taxes on farmers and traders. Residents fear that militant authority is becoming normalized in areas where the state is absent.

While no confirmed attacks have occurred within Niamey itself, the encirclement of western regions has significant strategic implications. The capital, though heavily guarded, relies on surrounding areas for food, fuel, and supply chains. Recent incidents, including the invasion, looting, and burning of structures in the suburbs of Makalondi by JNIM fighters on April 7, 2025, illustrate the escalating threat. Following this attack, locals fled the village in fear, attempting to migrate towards Torodi City. However, they faced blockades from security personnel, who cited security reasons for preventing their exit. This has led to frustration among residents, who accuse the government of failing to protect them during the attack.

The humanitarian crisis in Niger is alarming, exacerbated by the government’s inability to develop concrete confidence-building measures to encourage local populations to remain in their communities. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has also withdrawn its support, further complicating the humanitarian landscape.

Projected Outcomes and Regional Implications

As the situation unfolds, the potential for an influx of internally displaced persons (IDPs) into neighboring countries looms large. The continuous pressure from JNIM and ISGS could lead to further territorial gains within the Sahel, prompting increased protests against the government that could escalate into civil unrest or even civil war if not addressed.

Niger should consider providing humanitarian aid to victims, particularly as IDPs or refugee camps emerge across borders with Benin Republic and Nigeria. Collaborative efforts with neighboring countries to develop strategic counter-terrorism operations are essential to address the rising extremist threats. Activation of the ECOWAS Standby Force could enhance regional security measures. Moreover, Niger must intensify border security to manage the influx of refugees and curb the expansion of criminal activities across the northwest, northeast, and southwest regions of the country. Strengthening dialogue with the AES to enhance economic and security measures will be crucial in responding to the evolving threats in the Sahel.

In conclusion, as the situation in Tillabéri deteriorates, the specter of Niamey becoming the next target in this escalating conflict is increasingly plausible. The need for a coordinated and effective response from both national and regional actors has never been more urgent.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region.

After Tillabéri, Is Niamey the Next Target?

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ECOWAS Sounds Alarm Over Gulf Escalation, Warns of Economic Shockwaves for West Africa

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ECOWAS Sounds Alarm Over Gulf Escalation, Warns of Economic Shockwaves for West Africa

By: Michael Mike

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has raised fresh concerns over the escalating hostilities in the Gulf region, cautioning that a prolonged conflict could unleash severe economic and security repercussions far beyond the Middle East, with Africa among the hardest hit.

In a statement issued under the chairmanship of Julius Maada Bio, President of Sierra Leone, the 12-member regional bloc aligned itself with the position earlier expressed by the African Union Commission, which has voiced deep unease over the intensifying military exchanges.

The warning comes at a time when global energy markets are already on edge. The Gulf region remains central to international oil and gas supplies, accounting for a significant share of global crude exports. For West African economies — many of which are net importers of refined petroleum products despite being crude producers — volatility in oil prices translates quickly into domestic inflation, currency pressures and rising transport and food costs.

ECOWAS noted that beyond energy, the Gulf serves as a strategic artery for global trade. Key maritime routes, including those connected to the Strait of Hormuz, facilitate the movement of energy supplies and commercial goods between Asia, Europe and Africa. Any disruption risks compounding supply chain fragilities that have persisted since the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

For food-import-dependent nations across West Africa, the stakes are particularly high. Many countries in the region rely heavily on imported wheat, fertiliser and other agricultural inputs sourced through global supply chains sensitive to geopolitical shocks. Previous international crises have demonstrated how quickly distant conflicts can drive up bread prices and deepen food insecurity in African cities.

In its statement, ECOWAS urged all parties to exercise maximum restraint and adhere strictly to international law and the principles of the United Nations Charter, including respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity and the peaceful settlement of disputes. It stressed that civilian lives and critical infrastructure must be protected at all times.

The bloc also called for renewed diplomatic engagement within established international and regional frameworks, arguing that dialogue remains the only sustainable path to de-escalation. West African leaders have historically positioned the region as a strong advocate for multilateralism, often promoting negotiated settlements in conflicts both within and outside the continent.

Analysts observe that ECOWAS’ swift alignment with the African Union reflects a broader concern about the cumulative impact of global instability on African economies already grappling with debt burdens, currency depreciation and climate-related pressures. Rising energy prices could strain public finances, while shipping disruptions could intensify shortages of essential commodities.

The statement underscores a growing recognition among African policymakers that geopolitical flashpoints thousands of miles away can have immediate and tangible consequences at home. As tensions mount in the Gulf, ECOWAS has signalled that West Africa is watching closely — and urging diplomacy over escalation in the interest of global and regional stability.

ECOWAS Sounds Alarm Over Gulf Escalation, Warns of Economic Shockwaves for West Africa

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Army troops foils ISWAP attack on picketing troops in Konduga, Borno

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Army troops foils ISWAP attack on picketing troops in Konduga, Borno

By: Zagazola Makama

Troops of Joint Task Force Operation HADIN KAI under the 21 Special Armoured Brigade have successfully repelled an attack by suspected Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) terrorists on picketing personnel in the North East, of Konduga Borno state.

According to sources at about 1215 hours on February 26, picketing troops at checkpoint came under attack by elements of Boko Haram terrorists.

The soldiers responded aggressively while the Quick Reaction Force (QRF), led by the Sunray team, swiftly mobilised to the contact point where fire was exchanged with the terrorists. The attackers reportedly fled into the Yale Forest following the encounter.

In the aftermath, troops conducted exploitation along the terrorists’ withdrawal route and recovered one PKT believed to belong to the attackers.

The sources confirmed that the operation did not result in any casualties or injuries among the JTF personnel, and no equipment was lost.

The JTF added that monitoring of the area continues, and the morale and fighting efficiency of the troops remain satisfactory.

The sources said that the latest operation demonstrates the continued vigilance and readiness of the JTF in the North East to protect civilians and deny terrorists freedom of movement.
End

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Zulum Declares 2026 Year of Consolidation, Intensifies Security and Reconstruction Drive in Borno State

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Zulum Declares 2026 Year of Consolidation, Intensifies Security and Reconstruction Drive in Borno State

By: Michael Mike

Borno State Governor, Prof. Babagana Zulum has declared that his administration will intensify efforts to eliminate residual security threats and fast-track the completion of critical infrastructure projects across Borno State in 2026, describing the year as decisive for consolidating hard-won gains.

The governor made the commitment on Thursday during the first State Executive Council meeting of the year at the Government House in Maiduguri, where he addressed commissioners and senior government officials on the administration’s priorities.

Zulum said although relative stability has returned to many parts of the state after years of insurgency, the government would not relent until every community is safe.

“We have made measurable progress in restoring peace, but our task is not finished. Security remains the foundation upon which every other intervention stands. We will continue to support security agencies and ensure that no part of Borno is left vulnerable,” he stated.

A central pillar of the 2026 agenda, according to the governor, is the resettlement of internally displaced persons (IDPs), with emphasis on durable, long-term solutions rather than temporary relief.

He explained that the state government would deepen investments in housing, healthcare, education and livelihood programmes to ensure that returning families can rebuild their lives sustainably.

“Our goal is not just to return people to their communities, but to restore dignity, economic stability and hope. Resettlement must translate into real recovery,” Zulum said.

The governor also announced plans to strengthen social protection systems to shield vulnerable populations from economic shocks and the lingering effects of conflict. He described social protection as a strategic tool for stabilisation and inclusive growth.

“Social protection remains central to our rebuilding process. As we provide infrastructure and social amenities, we must also strengthen support systems for widows, orphans, and the most vulnerable in our society,” he added.

Zulum directed members of the executive council to ensure the timely completion of all ongoing projects across the state’s three senatorial districts. These projects cut across road construction, healthcare facilities, schools, water supply schemes and agricultural development initiatives.

He warned against delays and cost overruns, stressing the need for accountability, transparency and rigorous supervision.

“Every project must reflect value for money and must be delivered within schedule. Our people deserve visible and measurable progress,” he said.

The meeting was attended by the Secretary to the State Government, Bukar Tijani; Acting Chief of Staff, Dr. Babagana Mallumbe; and other top officials.

With the renewed focus on security consolidation and accelerated development, the Borno government signalled its determination to shift from emergency response to structured recovery, anchoring the state’s future on stability, infrastructure expansion and strengthened social systems.

Zulum Declares 2026 Year of Consolidation, Intensifies Security and Reconstruction Drive in Borno State

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