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After Tillabéri, Is Niamey the Next Target?

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After Tillabéri, Is Niamey the Next Target?

By: Zagazola Makama

As the security situation deteriorates in the embattled Tillabéri region of western Niger, fears are mounting that the country’s capital, Niamey, could become the next objective in a carefully coordinated offensive by jihadist groups.

What began as isolated attacks by armed terrorist groups (GATs) has now evolved into a structured campaign of territorial encirclement and economic suffocation. Once a resilient region, Tillabéri is now encircled by extremists who operate with impunity. Key towns such as Wanzarbé, Bankilaré, Kokourou, Ayorou, Makalondi, and Tamou have reportedly fallen under effective blockade, with roads cut off, markets paralyzed, and residents living under de facto insurgent control.

This shift from random insurgency to a strategic offensive raises alarm bells about the potential for a broader assault on Niamey, the political and military nerve center of Niger.

Groups such as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS/EIGS) and the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) have adopted deliberate tactics to isolate strategic zones, weaken state presence, and create power vacuums. Analysts suggest that this methodical advance is setting the stage for a possible assault on Niamey.

“Their objective is no longer just military it’s psychological and political,” says a Sahel-based security expert who spoke to Zagazola Makama on the condition of anonymity. “They want to collapse the state from the outer provinces inward, sowing fear, discrediting the armed forces, and projecting power.”

Amid this deteriorating situation, the Nigerien Army’s response has been notably muted. Despite mounting pressure from local communities, there has been little visible counter-offensive. Observers question why the military appears paralyzed while villages fall, trade routes close, and militants entrench themselves deeper.

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, had previously pledged to deploy a joint 5,000 man force to confront the growing threat. However, weeks later, there is no visible deployment, and coordination appears fractured. Military insiders cite low morale, unclear command structures, and growing disillusionment with military leadership, which is perceived to prioritize political office over battlefield engagement. “The foot soldiers are angry, and many feel betrayed,” says a retired officer based in Niamey.

The humanitarian situation in Tillabéri is dire. With routes severed and aid agencies unable to reach besieged populations, tens of thousands are at risk of famine, displacement, and forced recruitment by insurgents. Local sources report that GATs now enforce their own laws, regulate movements, and impose taxes on farmers and traders. Residents fear that militant authority is becoming normalized in areas where the state is absent.

While no confirmed attacks have occurred within Niamey itself, the encirclement of western regions has significant strategic implications. The capital, though heavily guarded, relies on surrounding areas for food, fuel, and supply chains. Recent incidents, including the invasion, looting, and burning of structures in the suburbs of Makalondi by JNIM fighters on April 7, 2025, illustrate the escalating threat. Following this attack, locals fled the village in fear, attempting to migrate towards Torodi City. However, they faced blockades from security personnel, who cited security reasons for preventing their exit. This has led to frustration among residents, who accuse the government of failing to protect them during the attack.

The humanitarian crisis in Niger is alarming, exacerbated by the government’s inability to develop concrete confidence-building measures to encourage local populations to remain in their communities. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has also withdrawn its support, further complicating the humanitarian landscape.

Projected Outcomes and Regional Implications

As the situation unfolds, the potential for an influx of internally displaced persons (IDPs) into neighboring countries looms large. The continuous pressure from JNIM and ISGS could lead to further territorial gains within the Sahel, prompting increased protests against the government that could escalate into civil unrest or even civil war if not addressed.

Niger should consider providing humanitarian aid to victims, particularly as IDPs or refugee camps emerge across borders with Benin Republic and Nigeria. Collaborative efforts with neighboring countries to develop strategic counter-terrorism operations are essential to address the rising extremist threats. Activation of the ECOWAS Standby Force could enhance regional security measures. Moreover, Niger must intensify border security to manage the influx of refugees and curb the expansion of criminal activities across the northwest, northeast, and southwest regions of the country. Strengthening dialogue with the AES to enhance economic and security measures will be crucial in responding to the evolving threats in the Sahel.

In conclusion, as the situation in Tillabéri deteriorates, the specter of Niamey becoming the next target in this escalating conflict is increasingly plausible. The need for a coordinated and effective response from both national and regional actors has never been more urgent.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region.

After Tillabéri, Is Niamey the Next Target?

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Nigeria Moves to Strengthen Climate Accountability with New Transparency Committee

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Nigeria Moves to Strengthen Climate Accountability with New Transparency Committee

By: Michael Mike

The Federal Government has inaugurated a Project Steering Committee (PSC) to drive the implementation of the Global Environment Facility-backed Capacity Building Initiative for Transparency (CBIT), in a move aimed at improving Nigeria’s climate data systems and environmental accountability.

The initiative, coordinated by the Federal Ministry of Environment, is designed to enhance the country’s ability to track, report and verify climate actions, particularly in line with its obligations under the Paris Agreement.

Speaking during the inauguration in Abuja, the Director of Forestry at the ministry, Halima Bawa-Bwari, described the committee as a strategic mechanism to strengthen coordination and oversight of the project. Represented by Deputy Director Aiwuyo Christopher, she noted that the PSC would provide policy direction, ensure institutional alignment and address implementation challenges.

According to her, the CBIT programme—established under the Global Environment Facility following decisions reached at COP21 in Paris—supports countries in meeting enhanced transparency requirements under the Paris Agreement.

For Nigeria, she said, the project is critical to improving the generation, management and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions data across major sectors of the economy.

She explained that the initiative would reinforce institutional frameworks for data management, build technical capacity among stakeholders and support the development of a digital platform to promote transparent and accessible climate data.

Bawa-Bwari stressed that the success of the project would significantly improve Nigeria’s ability to meet its international reporting obligations with greater accuracy, consistency and credibility.

She also underscored the importance of collaboration, noting that effective implementation would depend on strong cooperation across sectors such as Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU), Energy, Transport, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), and Waste.

“The role of the committee is central to ensuring that the project achieves its objectives and contributes meaningfully to Nigeria’s climate commitments,” she said, urging members to demonstrate commitment and provide strategic leadership.

Also speaking, the Director of Planning, Research and Statistics at the ministry and GEF Operational Focal Point for Nigeria, Babagana Bukar, said the committee would play a key role in guiding implementation, resolving bottlenecks and aligning the project with national priorities, including the Energy Transition Plan and Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

He emphasised that transparency remains fundamental to credible climate action, describing it as the backbone of effective environmental governance rather than a mere procedural requirement.

In his remarks, the representative of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in Nigeria and ECOWAS, Hussein Gadain—represented by Adesoji Adeyemi—reaffirmed the organisation’s commitment to supporting countries in meeting transparency requirements through improved data systems and stronger partnerships.

He noted that the CBIT initiative is specifically designed to help countries enhance their capacity to monitor emissions and track climate actions across key sectors.

Similarly, the Director-General of the Nigeria Conservation Foundation (NCF), Joseph Onoja, highlighted the importance of collaboration in achieving sustainable outcomes. He said the partnership reflects a shared commitment among stakeholders to ensure effective implementation and measurable impact.

Onoja stressed the need for coordinated efforts to avoid duplication and promote synergy, noting that unified approaches would deliver more sustainable and impactful results.

Also contributing, a representative of the National Council on Climate Change (NCCC), Ann Umas, said the initiative is aimed at building a strong, data-driven foundation for climate governance, enabling informed decision-making and long-term sustainability.

The inauguration event was organised by the Department of Forestry of the Federal Ministry of Environment in collaboration with FAO and the Nigeria Conservation Foundation.

With the establishment of the steering committee, Nigeria is taking a significant step toward strengthening its climate transparency framework, improving data integrity and positioning itself for greater credibility in the global climate space.

Nigeria Moves to Strengthen Climate Accountability with New Transparency Committee

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Nigeria Moves to Transform Career Guidance System as Ministries, UNESCO, GIZ Push New National Policy Framework

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Nigeria Moves to Transform Career Guidance System as Ministries, UNESCO, GIZ Push New National Policy Framework

By: Michael Mike

Nigeria has taken a decisive step toward overhauling its career guidance and counselling system with the launch of a high-level policy dialogue aimed at developing a National Career Guidance and Counselling (CGC) Policy Framework.

The initiative, convened at the United Nations House in Abuja, brought together key stakeholders from the Federal Ministry of Education, Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment, Federal Ministry of Youth Development, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), and other development and technical partners.

Speaking at the opening session, the Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Education, Mr. Abel Enitan, described the workshop as a milestone in ongoing education reform efforts, emphasizing that career guidance must be repositioned as a strategic pillar rather than a peripheral service in Nigeria’s education system.

He noted that the changing global economy—driven by automation, digital transformation, and industrial shifts—demands that students are equipped not only with academic knowledge but with structured guidance that connects learning to real labour market opportunities.

According to him, the proposed framework will help align individual aspirations with national economic needs, particularly in priority sectors such as agriculture value chains, construction, and digital skills.

“Counselling in our institutions has been treated as a secondary service rather than a strategic necessity,” he said. “In today’s world, students need more than a syllabus; they need a compass.”

He further stressed that institutionalizing a national policy would ensure integration of labour market intelligence into school counselling systems, elevate Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) as a first-choice pathway, and improve employment outcomes as a measurable result of education investments.

Also speaking, the Acting Head of Education Sector at UNESCO Abuja, Mr. Oladeji Adeyemi, reaffirmed that career guidance and counselling is the critical bridge between education and employment, warning that even strong education systems cannot achieve their full impact without a coordinated CGC structure.

He explained that the new framework is designed to move Nigeria from fragmented interventions to a fully integrated system that connects education, labour, and youth development sectors.

“Career Guidance and Counselling is not an add-on — it is the bridge that connects learning to livelihoods,” he said.

Adeyemi emphasized the need for stronger institutional collaboration and shared ownership, noting that no single institution can effectively deliver career guidance in isolation. He called for a system where roles are clearly defined and stakeholders are fully accountable for implementation.

He also stressed the importance of alignment among stakeholders, describing the workshop as a platform to harmonize perspectives, validate earlier technical work, and agree on a coherent implementation pathway for the policy.

Over the next two days, participants are expected to engage in technical discussions, review international best practices, and jointly define the structure and pillars of the proposed national framework.

Both speakers underscored the urgency of moving from a system of “career by chance” to one of “career by choice,” where young Nigerians are equipped with structured pathways to education, skills development, and sustainable employment.

Development partners, including UNESCO under its Better Education for Africa’s Rise (BEAR III) initiative and GIZ, reaffirmed their continued support for Nigeria’s education and skills reform agenda.

The workshop is expected to produce a consolidated draft framework that will guide the future of career guidance and counselling in Nigeria’s education and labour systems.

Nigeria Moves to Transform Career Guidance System as Ministries, UNESCO, GIZ Push New National Policy Framework

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Air Strikes Eliminate ISWAP Shura Council Members, Foreign fighter wounded in Major Blow to Insurgent Leadership

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Air Strikes Eliminate ISWAP Shura Council Members, Foreign fighter wounded in Major Blow to Insurgent Leadership

By Zagazola Makama

Recent air strikes by security forces in Borno State have eliminated key members of an insurgent Shura council, in what sources describe as a significant blow to the group’s leadership structure.

Security sources said the strikes, carried out about three to four days ago at a location west of Dogon Chukun, targeted a of senior insurgent figures.

The sources disclosed that three Shura council members were among those neutralised, alongside two senior field commanders known as “Munzirs” and several fighters believed to be serving as bodyguards.

According to the sources, the operation has disrupted the command hierarchy of the group, as the Shura council plays a central role in strategic decision-making and operational coordination.

According to the sources, another top figure identified as Yaa Bashir, also a senior member of the Shura council, sustained a serious thigh fracture in the strikes.

They further revealed that a foreign fighter identified as Abu Khalid, believed to be an Arab national, also suffered severe injuries during the same operation.

The sources added that efforts are ongoing to ascertain the identities of others affected while assessment of the full impact of the strikes continues.

They noted that the operation forms part of sustained efforts by Operation Hadin Kai to degrade insurgent leadership and disrupt their operational capabilities in the North-East.

Air Strikes Eliminate ISWAP Shura Council Members, Foreign fighter wounded in Major Blow to Insurgent Leadership

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